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Sunday, March 2, 2008 | Science : Evolution and Biology | print version Print | Comments

Document Darwin's dangerous idea

by TheStar.com

Thanks to Gary Walsh for the link.

Reposted from:
http://www.thestar.com/article/308305

Royal Ontario Museum:
http://www.rom.on.ca/exhibitions/special/darwin.php

A major evolution exhibit opens in Toronto next week, which begs the question: Why so much fuss over a 150-year-old theory that seems to gather more scientific support by the decade?

Mar 01, 2008 04:30 AM
GEOFF PEVERE
BOOKS COLUMNIST

It's perfectly fitting that what is billed as the most in-depth exposition of artefacts related to Charles Darwin's development of the theory that man descended from other, earlier life forms – called Darwin: The Evolution Revolution – will find its temporary home in the Royal Ontario Museum beginning March 8, for that has traditionally been the type of setting where human beings and their prehistoric ancestors actually come face to face.

All other encounters, especially between homo sapiens and the giant lizards that predated them by untold millennia, are pure fantasy. Much, that is, to the chagrin of generations of young boys.

The fact is, there comes a time in the formative development of any young nerd when the crushing truth about dinosaurs sets in. Irresistibly cool as the idea may be, they never met people.

Or so science insists. Dinosaurs and people were separated by millions of years, and they would only be brought together in the comics, cartoons and pulp novels that fed the imagination, and – as technology permitted – in movies like King Kong, One Million B.C., and – surely this is why God created computers – Jurassic Park.

It was a case of popular culture providing what science could not. Since the very idea of men roaming the same planet as giant reptiles was just too good to resist – who can imagine Fred without Dino? – a virtual subgenre of fantasy entertainment has specialized in that very spectacle.

It's a spectacle that Charles Darwin made necessary. With the publication of his On the Origin of the Species by Means of Natural Selection, Or the Preservation of Favoured Races in the Struggle for Life in 1859, the controversy-averse, socially shy British naturalist (described by one biographer as "a reclusive biologist who wrote books") almost single-handedly upended the prevailing paradigm concerning the relationship between man, God and Nature. Where a concept of divine design in nature had prevailed for centuries, Darwin – a non-religious scientific materialist – offered something radically, startlingly and heretically different: a vision of nature processing change in life forms by force of circumstance, a process of constant situational adaptation that saw survival as the only `design' at work. Ergo, dinosaurs go when they can no longer cut it, and man only comes along when natural circumstances permit.

Small wonder Darwin himself sat on the revelation for years before publishing it. He knew what was coming. As he wrote in a letter, he felt like he was "committing murder."

While there remains much dispute as to just what Darwin killed or how effectively he did so, at the very least he strangled the notion that history might have contained that fabulously dramatic moment when men went spear to talon with T-rex. Never happened. At least not in nature. But who needs nature (or Charles Darwin) when you've got movies?

Yet there may be no country in the world other than America where a movie featuring both dinosaurs and people would be regarded as the truth.

Consider the statistics. According to Susan Jacoby's recent book The Age of American Unreason, which singles out certain anti-Darwinian strains in American culture as an especially egregious example of the country's drift away from rationalism, "Fewer than half of Americans – 48 per cent – accept any form of evolution (even guided by God), and just 26 per cent accept Darwin's theory of evolution by natural selection. Fully 42 per cent say that all living beings, including humans, have existed in their present form since the beginning of time."

Jacoby is quoting data from a 2005 survey conducted by the PEW Forum on Religion and Life, and the figures show up once again in David Quammen's The Reluctant Mr. Darwin, a book that attempts to put both Darwin and his theories in some kind of clear, rational context. Noble though Quammen's intentions may be, they might also be quixotic, especially considering just how many Americans seem to be willing to express their views on evolution and natural selection without having much idea what they are. As Kevin Phillips points out in American Theocracy, a volume addressing the hugely consequential convergence of religious fundamentalism and politics in Bush's U.S.A., "In 1993, an international social survey ranked Americans last – behind Bulgaria and Slovenia – in knowledge of the basic facts of evolution."

To quote Groucho: "Whatever it is, I'm against it."

But does this ignorance of the specifics of Darwin's theories actually prevent the controversy from being even more explosive? Quammen, for one, thinks so. Pointing out that the idea of evolution – wherein life forms change over time – is profoundly less theologically threatening than the idea of natural selection – wherein evolution is determined solely by an organism's situational response to natural circumstances, and thus utterly bereft of divine design – the author raises the notion that it may actually be a good thing that people think they know more about Darwin than they actually do.

"His biggest idea, bigger than mere evolution," writes Quammen, "was just too big, too harsh and threatening. It was called `natural selection' and identified as the primary mechanism of evolutionary change." If you're looking for the God-hole in Darwin, this is it: "(Natural selection) embodies a deep chanciness," Quammen notes, "that is contradictory to the notion that Earth's living creatures, their capacities (including human capacities), their histories, their indigenousness to particular locales, and their interrelations all reflect some sort of divinely preordained plan. Creationist proselytizers pursuing Christian political agendas are therefore right to regard it with loathing and alarm."

A year before the PEW survey was taken, the Gallup organization interviewed more than 1,000 Americans over the phone. Among the statements presented for response was: "God created human beings pretty much in their present form at some time within the last 10,000 years or so." As Quammen notes in the introduction to The Reluctant Mr. Darwin, 45 per cent of those surveyed agreed. Thirty-eight per cent of the respondents agreed that human beings "have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God guided this process." Only 13 per cent agreed with what might be called Darwin's original principle: that humans have evolved over time from other life forms with nature – and not God – as their only guide.

Clearly, there's something about (to borrow the title of a 2001 documentary) Darwin's Dangerous Idea that continues to meet aggressive and even mounting resistance more than a century and a half after they were first published. As Quammen notes: "Certainly those Gallup results – combined with the continuing political offensive against teaching evolutionary biology in public schools – testify that Charles Darwin isn't just perennially significant. He's also urgently relevant to education and governance."

Urgent is the word. If anything, Darwin's ideas are only becoming more dangerous as we approach the 200th anniversary of his birth. As Jacoby notes, there is actually more resistance, especially in America, today than there was one, two, three or even six generations ago. Why is this happening? Why, despite the fact that creationism, along with its uptown cousin "intelligent design," keeps getting expelled (as recently as 2005's Kitzmiller v. Dover ruling) as non-science from science classrooms by some of America's highest courts, while Darwin's "theory" has not only never been disproved but has actually accumulated only more supporting evidence over the decades? Why, nearly 200 years after his birth, are people so afraid of Charles Darwin?

To understand this, you need to understand not only Darwin and his theories but America itself. As fundamentalism (a term which first came into being after the widely-covered Scopes trial of the 1920s) has risen in power and influence in the United States, so has the resistance to the notion of evolution, let alone natural selection. For if one accepts the ideas of Darwin, one cannot subscribe to a fundamentalist notion of God. One cannot accept the idea of Genesis as a literal rendering of the creation of man and the universe, and one must accept the idea that the only "guiding" force in nature is adaptation to circumstance in order to survive. This is not to say that there is no God (and Darwin never suggested so), only that the idea of God itself must be rethought in a post-Darwinian world. To survive Darwin's dangerous ideas, even the almighty is compelled to adapt.

Geoff Pevere frequently writes about popular culture. He can be reached at gpevere@thestar.ca

Comments 1 - 47 of 47 |

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1. Comment #137249 by Deepthought on March 2, 2008 at 2:58 pm

 avatarMost of it seems to be statistics but those are enlightening. They are statistics to give any creationist heart and to scare the living daylights out of everyone else.

I don't think the creationists have tried to get evolution out of schools for a while. Now they are busy citing the "teach both sides" in order to smuggle it in and create conflict where none exists.

This is the best statistic yet "In 1993, an international social survey ranked Americans last -- behind Bulgaria and Slovenia-- in knowledge of the basic facts of evolution."

I wonder what will happen to this statistic when my generation gets out of school? (I'm 14)

Other Comments by Deepthought

2. Comment #137275 by Stormkahn on March 2, 2008 at 3:35 pm

 avatarAmerica : A fascinating place, so advanced and yet at times so so backward. Here's hoping natural selection prunes out the really stupid ideas....

keep banging the rocks together guys!

Other Comments by Stormkahn

3. Comment #137282 by steveroot on March 2, 2008 at 3:43 pm

 avatar
1. Comment #137249 by Deepthought on March 2, 2008 at 2:58 pm

I wonder what will happen to this statistic when my generation gets out of school? (I'm 14)

Don't give up! It's folks like you who give me hope.
Cheers!
Steve

Other Comments by steveroot

4. Comment #137283 by emmet on March 2, 2008 at 3:44 pm

 avatar
Here's hoping natural selection prunes out the really stupid ideas...

That'd be a triumph of hope over experience: it hasn't done a very good job pruning out the really stupid people!

Other Comments by emmet

5. Comment #137290 by Bruno on March 2, 2008 at 3:51 pm

Excellent article.

I remember reading a startling statistic in "The World Is Flat" by Thomas Friedman that basically said that the USA, in terms of full science majors coming out of universities, is ranked 23rd (right between Mexico and Turkey).

Which is worse? The quote just mentioned or the quote in the article: "In 1993, an international social survey ranked Americans last -- behind Bulgaria and Slovenia -- in knowledge of the basic facts of evolution." Or does one explain the other?

Either way you slice it, add the two together and one must conclude that America is in serious decline, or if it continues on present track, will be very soon.

Perhaps only then will America wake up to the importance and value of a science education and how it translates or delivers values back to the society at large.

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6. Comment #137293 by digitalia on March 2, 2008 at 3:56 pm

 avatarlooks like it's time to renew my ROM membership! :)

Other Comments by digitalia

7. Comment #137295 by BigJohn on March 2, 2008 at 3:57 pm

 avatar"Begs the question"?? Please...

Other Comments by BigJohn

8. Comment #137309 by 4horsefins on March 2, 2008 at 4:16 pm

I think the atheist movement has caused a significant reduction in fundamentalism. I live in the bible belt of the US and this is what I see. The vast majority still hold on to their God belief, but it is a watered down version where God and evolution co-exist. "Yes we evolved, but God did that too."

Other Comments by 4horsefins

9. Comment #137310 by LorienRyan on March 2, 2008 at 4:17 pm

 avatarThe title Darwin's Dangerous Idea begs the question, 'dangerous? To who?'. Darwin's theory of natural selection has been the foundation of many advances in science, benefiting humanity. How can that be dangerous? Quite the opposite I would've thought.

Creationism, the theory of evolution's self appointed rival, has contributed nothing whatsoever to real physical science. The creationist/ID movement is just a propaganda machine and I can see why it's proponents don't want to be deprived of a paycheck, because of that little annoying and ever persistent nag - reality.

Other Comments by LorienRyan

10. Comment #137314 by Frankus1122 on March 2, 2008 at 4:24 pm

 avatar
looks like it's time to renew my ROM membership! :)


I'm booking a trip to the ROM with my class when I get to school tomorrow.

Other Comments by Frankus1122

11. Comment #137324 by notsobad on March 2, 2008 at 4:46 pm

 avatar
This is not to say that there is no God (and Darwin never suggested so), only that the idea of God itself must be rethought in a post-Darwinian world.

Actually, that is to say after rethinking.

Other Comments by notsobad

12. Comment #137334 by jo5ef on March 2, 2008 at 4:59 pm

Its unfortunate that an article that appears to support Darwins ideas contains the pharase "surely this is why God created computers"
i think its a bit unfair to pin this one on the big guy.
As to why Darwins ideas are so scary, i have said it before , but i think it comes down to hating the idea that we evolved form apes and are therefore apes ourselves. Many if not most people are really uncomfortable with where that line of thinking leads.

Other Comments by jo5ef

13. Comment #137371 by cal_mertes on March 2, 2008 at 6:11 pm

A general question ---


whenever the creationists raise the issue of "teach the controversy", why not demand that they teach the controversy, or at least the basic facts of evolution, in their church?

Most would probably refuse. But then we can expose them as loud-mouth hypocrites.

Other Comments by cal_mertes

14. Comment #137407 by lievemebe on March 2, 2008 at 8:03 pm

"As to why Darwins ideas are so scary, i have said it before , but i think it comes down to hating the idea that we evolved form apes and are therefore apes ourselves. Many if not most people are really uncomfortable with where that line of thinking leads."

jo5ef, that line of thinking leads to a universe with no purpose. Most people are very uncomfortable with this and feel the need to invent magical answers. Worse, evolution, which has no pre-ordained direction, could take us back to the apes. Science is all we have to overcome the shocking statistics in the US and elsewhere.

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15. Comment #137432 by pkruger on March 2, 2008 at 8:44 pm

I think I'm going to scream.

'Begging the question' means circular reasoning--and nothing else. It does NOT mean something like 'which leads one to ask the question' or 'which brings one to ask' etc.

I'm amazed how many times I see posters in here commit this faux pas, in the print media, and on the radio--and what amazes me is that it gets by editors who I presume are defenders of proper use of the English language.

Time now to take that pill.

Other Comments by pkruger

16. Comment #137434 by LorienRyan on March 2, 2008 at 9:00 pm

 avatarpkruger,

You're right. Although it's use as raising the question is acceptable, and has been so for decades now.

Don't forget that meanings and relevance of words do change over time.

Time to take that metaphorical pill:)

Other Comments by LorienRyan

17. Comment #137437 by Eric Blair on March 2, 2008 at 9:28 pm

pkruger: on "begging the question."

It's a lonely and losing battle. It's gotten to the point that whenever I see the phrase, I assume it's used incorrectly and I'm rarely disappointed.

Technically, it's an argument where you're simply restating what you're seeking to prove in other terms, or presenting an argument that assumes its conclusion in its very formulation. An example: "If God exists, he would have created an orderly universe. The universe is orderly, therefore God exists."

EB

Other Comments by Eric Blair

18. Comment #137446 by Teratornis on March 2, 2008 at 10:12 pm

 avatarAmericans also burn more than twice as much petroleum per capita as Europeans, and more than twice as much to generate a unit of GDP.

Americans are also more likely to be skeptical that burning fossil fuels could possibly influence the Earth's climate.

In America we have what James Kunstler calls "the consensus social trance." Even now, with mounting evidence that the world's petroleum production either has already peaked, or will soon peak, and then go into irreversible decline, Americans are still continuing their six-decades-long project to sprawl their population into one continuous low-density, utterly automobile-dependent development strung along the nation's superhighways.

The U.S. is by far the world's largest importer of oil, yet attempts to behave as if we are still in the glory days from the late 1800s to the 1950s when the U.S. was the world's largest exporter of oil.

History may judge America's religious beliefs to be merely amusing compared to the massive misallocation of resources into building the vast enterprise of suburbia, a pattern of construction which may very soon become completely untenable.

Other Comments by Teratornis

19. Comment #137447 by Teratornis on March 2, 2008 at 10:15 pm

 avatarIn reply to comment #137432 by pkruger:

I'm amazed how many times I see posters in here commit this faux pas, in the print media, and on the radio--and what amazes me is that it gets by editors who I presume are defenders of proper use of the English language.


Another source of much anguish is the common misuse of "sour grapes" to mean resentment.

It will be nice when computers pass the Turing test. Then it's possible language will stop evolving the stupid way.

Other Comments by Teratornis

20. Comment #137448 by MaxD on March 2, 2008 at 10:23 pm

 avatarTeratornis, teratornis
you can always be counted on for that can't you.

Other Comments by MaxD

21. Comment #137466 by emmet on March 3, 2008 at 12:29 am

 avatar
I wonder what will happen to this statistic when my generation gets out of school? (I'm 14)

Well, when you're currently dead last, the only way is up, right?

Unless, of course, the margin of ignorance between the US and Bulgaria and Slovenia widens, which isn't impossible: in 1993, the Iron Curtain had recently fallen and both were former Communist countries. Now, both are members of the EU and (in all likelihood) benefiting from EU structural and cohesion funds, which could plausibly lead to better education in these countries. I don't see much that encourages me to believe that education might have improved in the US since 1993.

Other Comments by emmet

22. Comment #137467 by Steve Zara on March 3, 2008 at 12:34 am

 avatarComment #137447 by Teratornis
It will be nice when computers pass the Turing test. Then it's possible language will stop evolving the stupid way.


I suspect that the only way that computers will pass the Turing test is to have them join in the stupid way.

It is worth noting that the Turing test is not that accurate anyway. In recent competitions for the Loebner Prize (awarded based on quality of attempts to pass the test), some of the human controls failed ...

Other Comments by Steve Zara

23. Comment #137514 by The Flying Trilobite on March 3, 2008 at 3:25 am

 avatarI really did not like this article.

It careens all over the place, crashing into each issue and then drives off.

At the beginning, is Pevere suggesting that Darwin's biggest contribution was showing us that humans and dinosaurs didn't live together?!

"Irresistibly cool as the idea may be, they never met people.

Or so science insists."

Yeah, the edifice of science insists. That phrase sounds like the authour begs to differ. I was so disappointed. Darwin on the front page of the Star, and look inside and we get this too-short, unfocused article.

Other Comments by The Flying Trilobite

24. Comment #137528 by GBile on March 3, 2008 at 4:53 am

Maybe, just maybe, the 'getting dumber of America' is a good thing. It might even be evolution at work.

Religious people breeding profusely 'for Jezus or Allah' will eventually mean less science, less advanced technology, prayer instead of medicine and so on. So in the end we will again have 'hunter-gatherer' societies and these 'fittest', one million per continent, might be longer around than now is in store for mankind.

Did I miss something ?

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25. Comment #137530 by black wolf on March 3, 2008 at 5:12 am

 avatar
Unless, of course, the margin of ignorance between the US and Bulgaria and Slovenia widens, which isn't impossible: in 1993, the Iron Curtain had recently fallen and both were former Communist countries. Now, both are members of the EU and (in all likelihood) benefiting from EU structural and cohesion funds, which could plausibly lead to better education in these countries. I don't see much that encourages me to believe that education might have improved in the US since 1993.


A decline of communism as a governing ideology has lead to an increased influence of religion in every country affected. I can't tell how large the effect actually is, but there are recurring news where churches and religious groups do attempt to influence public opinion, legislation and freedom of speech and expression in most former communist block countries.
However, from what I see in former East Germany, the restrictions on religious expression and activity under Communism have lead to a steep decline in interest for religious matters in the population. Churches are struggling to survive everywhere; not to be confused with the physical buildings of historical value.
I'm very glad that we have a scientist as chancellor, and many scientists in political office.

Other Comments by black wolf

26. Comment #137531 by Kell on March 3, 2008 at 5:12 am

 avatar
this is why God created computers - Jurassic Park


Surely the most nauseating theistic apologetic argument I've heard yet :P

Other Comments by Kell

27. Comment #137533 by black wolf on March 3, 2008 at 5:19 am

 avatar
Religious people breeding profusely 'for Jezus or Allah' will eventually mean less science, less advanced technology, prayer instead of medicine and so on.


You did miss something. In the world today, prosperous and scientifically / technically advanced nations will always subsidize those who are underdeveloped. Educationally challenged and less enlightened countries will always receive the fruits of reason and rational thinking basically for free, because certain nutjobs are willing to let their own population starve just to let their ideology survive. Which then survives because the population gets food and medicine from outside the country for free, and is too weak to revolt for all the foreseeable future.

Other Comments by black wolf

28. Comment #137536 by DeLan on March 3, 2008 at 5:22 am

"begs the question" - No, it raises the question.

As BigJohn says "Please"! "Begs the question" is the name of a logical fallacy.

Other Comments by DeLan

29. Comment #137540 by VanYoungman on March 3, 2008 at 5:33 am

 avatarYou would think that more than 10 years after Dan Dennett published the best seller "Darwin's Dangerous Idea" and the fact that he presented the argument so much better than Pevere, that he might get a little more credit.

Other Comments by VanYoungman

30. Comment #137542 by padster1976 on March 3, 2008 at 5:39 am

 avatarBegs the question

surely this is why God created computers

prevent the controversy from being even more explosive


These do not impress me.

Other Comments by padster1976

31. Comment #137559 by phasmagigas on March 3, 2008 at 6:42 am

 avatargenerally i wonder what a created world (ie no evolution)would be like?

assuming that adam and eve had a normal amount of DNA and not all the present genetic variation in humans somehow implanted in them then the notion of the sexs seems silly, if evolution doesnt happen then why the need for recombination? this is supposed to in part provide variation to fight off those varying parasites/diseases (and how do individual parasites vary if theres no evolution?? esp after the flood where they were reduced to two by twos, i supppose the hermaphrodite species got a head start then!)

so no evo, no need for sex, no need for adam and eves, so why didnt god create an individual ( the image of god as such) that budded off new clones which would have its own separate free willed mind (soul) within a 'level playing field body' so all things being equal would at least give us a fair go at getting into heaven or hell.

the clone would of course be perfect, it wouldnt have cell organelles that were rather like bacteria, it wouldnt even need testicles hanging in a sac, it wouldnt need to fight over mates just resources, it wouldnt die of cancer or genetic defects as it would just magically lie down and fade away beautifully without any specific fear.

hmm, so maybe the chosen ones ar actually rotifers, as i read in a certain book of tales, these seemingly have been cloning for a long, long time.

the problem with creationists and polls is that when they are asked questions about 'origins' they are hardly in a position to answer the question simply because they probably dont understand what evolution even is and half of them are probably confused by the questions generally.

a better question could be something like 'are you generally a parochially minded, ignorant of facts and somewhat infantile individual' as most would say 'no' then we could assume that as this predisposes the individual to creationism then we can assume that all things being equal that they would be in support of evolution!!

anyway im taking the piss as its sometimes necessary when thinking about creationists.

Other Comments by phasmagigas

32. Comment #137563 by bamafreethinker on March 3, 2008 at 6:57 am

 avatarI'm happy to report that my son is 12 and he understands/accepts evolution. The best thing about this is that he mostly learned about it at school (with a little help from PBS, the Discovery Channel, and me of course). I asked him about the age of the earth and evolution a year ago and he understands it pretty well. I also asked if his science teacher (a young female) gave any "caveats" to the theory to make room for creationism and she did not. And this is in the middle of one of the most fundamentalist areas of the Bible Belt! (Note: we do live near the technologically advanced and affluent pocket of Huntsville, AL; one of the homes of NASA, the Space and Rocket Museum, and Space Camp).

I think that if we keep winning the battles (i.e. Dover) to keep creationism out of schools, then we will gradually win the war. I have the suspicion that this surge of the fundamentalists over the past few decades is a last gasp. I can imagine that the slave owners in the US probably had a fervent surge near the end too.

Other Comments by bamafreethinker

33. Comment #137578 by ridelo on March 3, 2008 at 8:02 am

jo5ef:
"As to why Darwins ideas are so scary, i have said it before , but i think it comes down to hating the idea that we evolved from apes and are therefore apes ourselves. Many if not most people are really uncomfortable with where that line of thinking leads."

Thought experiment: learn a bunch of chimps to use a gun and turn them loose in some natural park with enough ammo. See how fast they will behave as humans do.

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34. Comment #137744 by PJG on March 3, 2008 at 12:30 pm

 avatarI wonder why it matters to these people so much what they are descended from.

Does their ancestry make any difference to how they behave now, in this one life?

Personally, considering all the damage Adam did did - couldn't do as he was told for five minutes (when he was told not to eat of the tree of knowledge), all the sin he let into the world, rogering Eve (though I've always wondered how they would have peopled the Earth if he hadn't), his second son was a murderer (which suggests his parenting skills left something to be desired) so he really can't be considered a good role model - I would rather have a hairy, knuckle-dragging primate (and some time before that, a fish!) as my ancestor.

Other Comments by PJG

35. Comment #137746 by Goldy on March 3, 2008 at 12:35 pm

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=82&objectid=10495940
With luck, we may be able to find out how we fast we recently evolved - interesting article above.

Other Comments by Goldy

36. Comment #138084 by jwdink on March 3, 2008 at 10:02 pm

Damnit. Don't say "begs the question" unless you're referring to the logical fallacy!

Other Comments by jwdink

37. Comment #138087 by Teratornis on March 3, 2008 at 10:15 pm

 avatarIn reply to comment #137467 by Steve Zara:

I suspect that the only way that computers will pass the Turing test is to have them join in the stupid way.


That would be one approach, although the real test of conversational computers will be the market test, and I suspect that for computers to pass that test, they will have to be more interesting to talk to than the people we already have in great abundance.


It is worth noting that the Turing test is not that accurate anyway. In recent competitions for the Loebner Prize (awarded based on quality of attempts to pass the test), some of the human controls failed ...


I suppose, then, that the definition of passing the Turing test will be to pass the test at least as often as humans do.

We can probably expect more humans to "fail" the Turing test as computers get closer to passing it, since people will have some experience with quasi-conversational computers, and as computers improve they will tend to "overtake" a steadily larger fraction of people. A human with a stilted way of communicating may remind the panel of Turing test judges of some computers they know.

Conversational computers may recapitulate the history of chess programs, which gradually worked their way up the chess ratings. Eventually there was only one guy left who could beat the computers ... and then he lost.

Other Comments by Teratornis

38. Comment #138090 by Bonzai on March 3, 2008 at 10:27 pm

If you have ever visited an internet sex chat room you may realize that it is not very difficult to write a short program that would pass the Turing test if the judges are a bunch of horny men.

I went to an AI talk last year and the speaker sheepishly admitted that he had been fooled.

Other Comments by Bonzai

39. Comment #138093 by Teratornis on March 3, 2008 at 10:44 pm

 avatarIn reply to comment #137448 by MaxD:

Teratornis, teratornis
you can always be counted on for that can't you.


You know it man. Just wait another five years - people will hardly be able to speak of anything else. Not when petroleum hits $300/bbl, the price of food triples, and you won't be able to give Hummers away. Or maybe 10 years.

"Not one in fifty, not one in one hundred people in our country have any inkling of the potential problem we are facing." -- Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, R-Maryland, quoted in A Crude Awakening: the Oil Crash.

It's going to be interesting to see how a nation of oil junkies reacts when everybody finally realizes the petroleum needle is getting yanked out of the arm.

Here are some peak oil vids:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMQd5nGEkr4 (a pretty good intro to the subject)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QovBLFZhQME (this video is funny today; let's hope it stays funny)

This video is a bit artsy at the beginning, but it's not too bad, and it features Colin Campbell who seems to me a bit like the Richard Dawkins of peak oil, only rather more morose as peakniks must invariably be, and as everyone else will soon be if the peakniks turn out to be correct:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmN9_jGRvHg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71Y2yAAHHRw

Check out the navigation template I made on Wikipedia, and read all the articles it links to (especially the Hirsch report):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Peak_oil

Peak oil, if true, is only the most important event in the history of industrial civilization, so any time you spend learning about it is probably a good idea. Maybe you will avoid making catastrophic mistakes (such as, for example, buying a McMansion in an outlying suburb which can only function in a world with an unlimited supply of cheap liquid fuels from petroleum).

I also recommend selling any stock you may have in airline companies.

Other Comments by Teratornis

40. Comment #138211 by PJG on March 4, 2008 at 4:18 am

 avatarTeratornis

Gosh, you don't mean to say that, maybe, the extra runway at Heathrow (to be opened in about 10 years) might be, well, not a good idea then?!

Maybe we should tell our imbecilic (UK) government?

The sarcasm is not aimed at you, Teratornis, but at the people making these sorts of decisions who are either
a) totally incompetent
b) burying their heads so far into the sand that their noses are getting burned by the central core
c) pretending things are going to carry on the way they have been because the riots and mayhem that would result from them being honest would be out of their control
d) they think being honest would lose them votes
e) all of the above?

Any other suggestions?

(I think the answer is "e".)

Other Comments by PJG

41. Comment #138279 by Opisthokont on March 4, 2008 at 6:18 am

Re: #5 --

... America is in serious decline, or if it continues on present track, will be very soon.

Perhaps only then will America wake up to the importance and value of a science education and how it translates or delivers values back to the society at large.


I doubt it. America has a narcissistic streak a kilometre wide. If and when America hits its decline (if it has not started already), I suspect that it will just retreat further into fundamentalism and patriotism. America's decline will be a full-speed hurtle into the Third World, but at the same time it will never forget the glory of its empire.

I do not think that this is inevitable, but I am not optimistic about it. American anti-intellectualism is just too deeply seated.

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42. Comment #138380 by mikecbraun on March 4, 2008 at 8:54 am

 avatarI see David Quammen was mentioned. "The Reluctant Mr. Darwin" is one of my favorite books. I vividly remember reading it during a couple of rainy days/evenings in my family's cabin in the northern Ontario wilderness. There's nothing like a well-written book, scientific ponderings, excellent Canadian beer (Sleeman gets a free plug here), and the awe-inspiring sensory stimulations of nature to put you at peace. Getting out of these barely United States for a while helps, too.

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43. Comment #138454 by Teratornis on March 4, 2008 at 11:13 am

 avatarIn reply to comment #138211 by PJG:

Gosh, you don't mean to say that, maybe, the extra runway at Heathrow (to be opened in about 10 years) might be, well, not a good idea then?!

Maybe we should tell our imbecilic (UK) government?

The sarcasm is not aimed at you, Teratornis,


Thanks for that last disclaimer - let's hope I was smart enough not to need it. Then again, caution is the order of the day when writing to distant strangers. Every time we attempt a joke, we trigger a jihad it seems. I appreciate both your sarcasm and your courtesy. Not to mention your great example of the depth of denial that exists over the inescapable reality of the peaking of global oil production.

The Heathrow expansion plan sounds similar to the boundless optimism for the Panama Canal:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_Canal_expansion_project

Planners for these projects evidently look at their graphs of past traffic growth (which gained momentum during the anomalous 1990s and early 2000s when petroleum prices collapsed) and extend the curves forward in time, as if they expect the liquid fuels to power all these vehicles will magically materialize as needed.

There might be a case for expanding the Panama Canal, though, because ocean-going vessels are the most efficient motor-driven vehicles in terms of fuel consumed per unit of payload transported a unit distance. The U.S. currently squanders vast amounts of petroleum on transcontinental trucking, some of which might be replaced by sending freight on boats through Panama. (On the other hand, petrocollapse may lead to an economic contraction, leading to less global trade, and therefore a reduction in canal tolls.)

No potential justification exists for expanding airport capacity right now. Air travel is the most energetically wasteful form of transportation we have, and thus it is the most uniquely dependent on our highest-quality fuel, namely liquid fuels from petroleum. We might be able to build practical ground vehicles that run on batteries; they won't perform as well as the petroleum-fueled vehicles we have now, but they will work. In contrast, airplanes aren't going to run on anything other than liquid fuels for the foreseeable future.

The stunning irony of air travel is that its growth over the past several decades has been driven by the early versions of the very same technology which will render it superfluous. Of course I'm speaking of information technology. As computers and telecommunication have gotten cheaper, people have found it easier to form business and personal relationships with people who are far away. But because computers and telecommunications aren't yet good enough to achieve transparency, they create the desire in many people to physically travel to distant locations so they may get a better look at what our currently weak computers can only hint at.

In the meantime, Moore's law continues to exponentiate, moving computers ever closer to attaining the level of transparency that will turn physical travel into a waste of time. This would eventually occur even if everybody had an inexhaustible oil well in their basement. Even if fuel cost nothing, physical travel still consumes time, and it occasionally kills people. The fact that post-peak petroleum will explode in price will motivate people to find ways to make do sooner than they otherwise would with less-than-perfect transparency from their computers, because the only other choice will be a new Dark Age.

The best example of remote collaboration so far is Wikipedia. Wikipedia isn't close to being as transparent as working with people in the same physical room, but that doesn't matter. The project works unbelievably well because of the collective genius of its design.

I would be very pessimistic about peak oil if I didn't know about Wikipedia, i.e., about how it works. I'm still pessimistic about the fact that most people don't know about how Wikipedia works. But I can make my small incremental contribution to informing them. It helps immensely that everyone can see the working result, so there's nothing hypothetical at all about it. Anybody can browse there, and see the future of work.

Oddly, not even most people on Wikipedia seem to grasp that they are inventing the basis for post-peak industrial civilization. But it doesn't seem they need to be aware of this. Once people learn how to work productively without regard to physical location, they will automatically do the right thing as the price of liquid fuel skyrockets.


but at the people making these sorts of decisions who are either
a) totally incompetent
b) burying their heads so far into the sand that their noses are getting burned by the central core
c) pretending things are going to carry on the way they have been because the riots and mayhem that would result from them being honest would be out of their control
d) they think being honest would lose them votes
e) all of the above?

Any other suggestions?

(I think the answer is "e".)


I'd change "think" to "know" in option (d). Voters generally prefer optimists to realists. Where did the idea of God originate, anyway? The misery of the human condition has always stimulated fantasies of magical shortcuts to the only method for progress that works: rational thinking and centuries of hard effort.

I'd move option (e) to the letter (g), continue to keep it as the best choice, and insert:

e) they are ignoring their countryman Colin J. Campbell, who could explain the peaking of North Sea oil in 1999 and its implications for the future of the U.K.
f) they haven't yet learned to edit collaboratively on wikis

Groups are forming around the world to raise awareness of the implications of peak oil for their localities. Google for peak oil awareness:

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=peak oil awareness

You might find someone who can talk some sense into the Heathrow planners. There's a chance these planners have never even heard the phrase "peak oil". When I mention it to people I meet at random, about half the time the response is, "Peak what?"

Other Comments by Teratornis

44. Comment #138457 by al-rawandi on March 4, 2008 at 11:18 am

 avatarTera,



You should really copyright these publications of yours.

Other Comments by al-rawandi

45. Comment #138472 by Teratornis on March 4, 2008 at 12:13 pm

 avatarIn reply to comment #138457 by al-rawandi:

Tera,

You should really copyright these publications of yours.


If you mean that as a compliment, I thank you.

However, with all due respect, I consider copyright to be a barrier to human progress. Therefore I release all my writing under the GFDL.

I don't believe information should be rationed and metered, especially information we create in an attempt to persuade people of something. If we want to make a buck off our writing, there other methods to monetize eyeballs, e.g. Google AdSense.

Imagine how much faster the atheist movement would grow if all the great atheist writers would publish all their works under the GFDL! Then we would be free to translate their works into all languages, republish them in all present and future media, and freely link to and excerpt from their work to drive social filtering and recommendation. See:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GFDL

Licensing under the GFDL does not preclude selling paper copies of a work. Lots of people will still buy dead tree editions. But if we also give away free copies of our works online, we greatly expand our reach. We'll still have the million readers who buy the paper copy. We can also have ten million who read the online copies.

Consider: who is buying all these books about new atheism? Presumably, these are mostly people who are already inclined enough toward agreeing with the books to feel justified in spending some money. Nothing is wrong with that, but can we expect our opponents to spend money to be disagreed with? Some might, but perhaps the price of a book looms larger for many who are unsympathetic to our views. Eliminating that small barrier to entry should increase our reach toward the people we most need to reach.

After all, it requires a bit of deliberate effort to buy a paper book. When Prof. Dawkins entertains questions in his appearances, how often do people of faith admit they have not read his book? I haven't kept count, but it seems many if not most of his hostile questioners have not read him. If so, this is hardly surprising because people generally do not spend their own money on something they don't believe in.

Instead, if we put TGD online and made it free, we could probably expect more persons of faith who have heard about this horrible work of the Devil incarnate to take a peek. Just to see what all the fuss is about.

And some of them, having taken the first glimpse, might find themselves drawn to read the rest. Maybe even to question their faith. Maybe even to buy a paper copy.

It is time for atheism to enter the world of open source.

Of course we have partial steps in this direction. It's not too difficult to obtain a solid background in atheistic arguments just by reading what is available online for free. But why not go all the way? Let's GFDL the whole thing.

Lots of commercial software companies are seeing the light of open source. They can still sell products and make money even without trying to handcuff their customers with police-state intellectual property laws.

Of course I don't know every writer's economic situation, personal goals, etc., and I would imagine these folks are smart enough to have thought about their approach. I'm merely saying that if the real goal is to reach as many people as possible with our ideas, we will get there faster under a free license than under copyright.

Other Comments by Teratornis

46. Comment #139064 by PJG on March 5, 2008 at 5:12 am

 avatarTeratornis

Sadly, I have had to learn from previous mistakes when my sarcasm/jokes were thought to be aimed at a particular poster/serious - hence my disclaimer. Certainly not meant to insult your (or anyone else's) intelligence! :o)

Agree entirely with your additions to my list...

New list... further suggestions Anyone?

a) totally incompetent
b) burying their heads so far into the sand that their noses are getting burned by the central core
c) pretending things are going to carry on the way they have been because the riots and mayhem that would result from them being honest would be out of their control
d) they know being honest would lose them votes
e) they are ignoring their countryman Colin J. Campbell, who could explain the peaking of North Sea oil in 1999 and its implications for the future of the U.K.
f) they haven't yet learned to edit collaboratively on wikis
g) all of the above?

Other Comments by PJG

47. Comment #139068 by PJG on March 5, 2008 at 5:15 am

 avatarJust thought of another...

h) All politicians are lying, self-serving, contemptible scum-bags with less integrity than a retarded cockroach and who's honesty could be improved by lessons from Kent Hovind

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