Comments by Nairb

Comment #252233 by Nairb on September 22, 2008 at 4:40 pm

Sciros

I asked for evidence on the link to synagogues. That does not mean anecdotes and does not mean scientific proofs.

Fanusi has made other claims before - about population demographics. On this and other bases he justified deportation of citizens(technically he would take away their citizenship first).

Such positions are taken seriosly in a city which deported quite a lot of people in WW2 and where right wing fanatics today get 10% of the vote - while making unsubstantiated claims about muslims, jews the holocaust etc

I investigated the claim, got the data , analysed , searched for corroborateing data and reports in reputable sources and presented the results. I published the EU report here on RD.net and priovided examples of ho such a model works. His confident scare stories that France and Holland would have muslim majorities in two generations were bunk. That was for his claim.

Now I could do that for everything people say on this site. Or I could ask them to provide good evidence of their claims.

I have chosen the latter. And I think it is reasonable. Your comments about scientific data with a big or small S do not change the relevance of that simple request. Nor does the comment about cumulative anecdotes , nor human subjectivity.

These claims about Muslims are NOT on the same level as who is the best basketball player. They are about society and large populations tarred with the same brush.

Yes statistics about a basketball players points score are comparable. Just like the number of crimes by muslims against jews are comparable to number of crimes against christians etc.

Both of these are analysable. Such analysis is used in all forms of human activity to make informed decisions. The fact that there is always some element of subjectivity in human activities does not mean we ignore it. Its useful and is neither anecdote nor scientific proof.

And no one is so surprised or astonished when statistical evidence is requested when someone claims a basketball player or team is better then another.
Why is it surprising in relation to claims about muslim crimes?

PS Its a bit rich to ask me to provide evidence against a claim for which anecdotes are used as support.

Proposals without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.

152. When Atheists Attack

Comment #252190 by Nairb on September 22, 2008 at 3:08 pm

Sciros

It is obvious you cannot do test tube experiments on such points. It is also obvious you can collect and analyse the data, determine correlations and make clear judgements calls.

Because you cannot do test tube experiments does not mean we are limited to anecdotes.

Fanusi makes a claim, I ask for evidence.
Its simple really.

Hiding behind the word scientific wont do it I'm afraid.

This is like asking for scientific evidence that LeBron James is a better basketball player than Kobe Bryant.

It obviously isnt.

153. When Atheists Attack

Comment #252168 by Nairb on September 22, 2008 at 2:53 pm

Actually, Nairb, what I have said is that Shariah-advocating maniacs like Abu Hamza should loose their citizenship and then be deported so, technically, no I'm not talking about deporting citizens.

Fanusi
Can you not see that its the same thing as deporting citizens?

Also I am sure you understand that "Shariah-advocating maniacs like Abu Hamza" is an unclear term in law.

Do you remember the discussion on Thought Crime because of your lack of clarification on this point?

Do you remember Al arguing with you on what Sharia might mean to a muslim?

Do you remember that I had to write down a precice definition of what you were saying because you would not?

154. When Atheists Attack

Comment #252142 by Nairb on September 22, 2008 at 2:37 pm

Fanusi

Are you saying you would not deport citizens?
Have you forgotten what you said?

155. When Atheists Attack

Comment #252126 by Nairb on September 22, 2008 at 2:28 pm

Sciros

Fanusi asks for support to deport citizens. He continuously makes sweeping statements about muslims.
I ask for scientific evidence for his arguments.
I would do the same if he constantly referred like this to americans, jews or russians.

If that bothers you. If that makes you angry. If you find that morally reprehensible then too bad for you.

156. When Atheists Attack

Comment #252110 by Nairb on September 22, 2008 at 2:08 pm

Oh, and there was some statistical evidence that I posted, specifically about gang-rape, which, surprise surprise, you skated over.

Fanusi
Yes, you provided statistics. Now tell me wher you got the data.

I could throw out statistics too.
20% of this, 30% of that.

100% meaningless without the underlying source.

Provide the evidence to back up your sweeping statements.

157. When Atheists Attack

Comment #252085 by Nairb on September 22, 2008 at 1:52 pm

Fanusi,
Evidence is not a list of books titles or Newspapers . Evidence is a named and accessible serious study done by an independant organisation.

For example crime statistics published by a Statisics office or the Police of the country concerned.

If you want people to take seriously your claims then every time you do , provide a link to the study.

Example of an unconvincing argument
"in France muslim youths call it(rape) the tournante"

158. When Atheists Attack

Comment #252063 by Nairb on September 22, 2008 at 1:34 pm

Rest asured, as gays are killed in Amsterdamn and women are raped in Norway and Jews are burned in France, .....

Provide scientific evidence that such crimes are more likely to be committed by people that say they are muslims.
Eliminate the other possible causal variables and you will have a convincing case.

No doubt you have already done this before citing the anecdote in RD.Net.

So provide the evidence

Is it so difficult?

159. When Atheists Attack

Comment #252051 by Nairb on September 22, 2008 at 1:21 pm

Its very simple if you want to convince someone of a sweeping statement. You need to provide evidence.

If you are unable to do that then you will have a hard time.

Provide evidence that Islam is the problem. You cite burnt synagogues and jewish harassment in Berlin.

Provide Scientific evidence.

Not anecdotes

160. When Atheists Attack

Comment #252044 by Nairb on September 22, 2008 at 1:13 pm

Sciros

Regardless, there does seem to be strong suggestion that Jews are less safe in many European countries today than they were, say, five years ago. Many Jews feel this way, and I think it would take some hardcore convincing to blow it off as paranoia.

Your comment is an opinion. I have many jewish friends in the city you mention. I have never heard them say they felt les secure. That is my opinion.

If You or I now quote a wzll organised survey or study done by areputable institute - then we are starting to be scientific and we can reasonalbly draw some prudent and limited scientific conclusions.

I am sure you do not expect me to align with say some new policy directed at muslims rights based on your quoted opinions.

161. When Atheists Attack

Comment #252036 by Nairb on September 22, 2008 at 1:04 pm

Did you not read the post.
The example is in the post.

"Islam is a problem because synagogues get burned in France !!!!!"

Have you data and statistics that the number of fires in synagogues are statistically significant? Have you data that it points to muslims and not NeoNazis? And that if they do that it actually is the muslim attribute of those people that was the motivation.

Have you balanced that against the intercommunity relations amongst those groups?

Do you realise that there are millions of muslims living next to almost a million of jews in Paris.

No you obviously dont.

Unscientific.

162. When Atheists Attack

Comment #252012 by Nairb on September 22, 2008 at 12:42 pm

Now, are you saying I'm wrong about Islam? That it's central doctrines aren't what I say they are? Or that it isn't the threat I say it is? If so, how about actually doing the research and coming up with an argument based on facts and logic, instead of supercillious drivel?

synagogues being burned in Fance, and Jews being warned not to advertise their religion in Berlin - now do you two really think that there's not a problem here?

Steve,

Stick around, Fanusi's posts are more fun then anything else.

His ideas don't stand up to the light of day and his idea of convincing/conclusive evidence are silly at best.(as you can see from the sample quotes above of first an assertion and then the supposed convincing evidence)

We could be insulted that we are expected to fall for such half witted arguments.

But it can be handy to have examples of inept, unscientific, non-evidence-based argument at hand just to remind us what extremes it leads to.

By his standards we would have stopped all immigration of Men due to their continued agression to women, alcoholism , bad driving, higher prison presence etc.

163. When Atheists Attack

Comment #251268 by Nairb on September 21, 2008 at 10:17 am

Fanusi

Your "objections" amount to vague mumbo jumbo about muslim generations.

The model uses birthrates and deathrates calculated and integrated into the model on a 5 year basis. Generations are not needed and not used.

You were confidently predicting that Holland and France would soon have muslim majorities some time ago.
Yet EU demographers predict 16% and 19% depending on migration in 2050.

Now you want to "quibble" by raising meaningless questions as if EU demographers are going to be corrected by your "insights".

164. When Atheists Attack

Comment #251242 by Nairb on September 21, 2008 at 9:14 am

Fanusi

Actually Nairb, no I don't have your model because when I asked about certain limitations...

Asking questions about limitation dont make models you previously read and commented disappear.
Your questions/limitations have no effect on the model as I already told you. Or you can check for your self. Its just a red herring to avoid the obvious.

Comment #248942 by Nairb on September 17, 2008 at 8:11 am
Sorry for bringing your Doom of Civilisation Theory crashing to earth.
I didnt realize that would annoy you!

So
1) The supposed generation time effect is in the model because it is a more sophisticated model based not on generations but on yearly birthrates.
The generations I mentioned were to Illustrate the mechanism since you asked for an Explaination

165. When Atheists Attack

Comment #251172 by Nairb on September 21, 2008 at 6:56 am

Fanusi

You know, I'm still waiting for you to provide that "complex mathematical model" of yours. As I recall, I provided mine, but you weren't even able to critisize that one...

You dont have a model.
AND you have "mine" (actually a EU demographic study) for about 3 months. And you have actually read through it. As you know well, it contains all the data you are "waiting for".

But I understand your reluctance to "find" it.
When your job is Chief Crusader its unpleasant and irritating to find there is nothing to crusade about.

166. When Atheists Attack

Comment #251160 by Nairb on September 21, 2008 at 6:38 am

Its less fun to attack Hugh Fitzgerald (Jihadwatch)when he keeps to the solid ground of badly written opinion pieces - and he keeps away from the treacherous world of simple arithmetic ..... :-)))))
"2 plus 2 =653 : which means the end of civilisation"

167. When Atheists Attack

Comment #251148 by Nairb on September 21, 2008 at 6:18 am

Strangely enough, JihadWatch doesnt seem to like Obama either.
You remember JihadWatch : the well known non-mathematical,non-evidence based theatrical internet journal :-)

JihadWath finds Obama "worrisome". Strange, I've seen that word "worrisome" used a lot by someone here before.

Fitzgerald: What is worrisome about Obama http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/022391.php
That is what is so worrisome about Obama. His naivete, combined with the conviction that he "knows" about Islam because of his experiences in Indonesia between the ages of 6 and 10, or because he "knows" about his father, a nominal Muslim, in Kenya, or because he "knows" -- how could such a person not know? -- that Everyone Wants The Same Thing, All Religions Are Exactly Alike, and The Whole World Is Kin. ......
....
When it comes to Barack Obama, there is plenty to worry about.

Could it be that it is "worrisome" that Obama would not swallow paperthin arguments about the "End of Civilisation due to the Muslims"
Luckily Palin doesnt provide any such "Worry"

168. Look Who's Irrational Now

Comment #250642 by Nairb on September 20, 2008 at 3:49 am

Its complicated because those "Belonging to Religion" is not the same as "Believing in God "
I think some people are reluctant to say they are atheists asthey do often harbour a small possibility of God existing.

In fact many who say "belong" to religion are actually talking about community not doctrine/belief
Also thos whose ay they "do not belong" to a religion can actually believe in some sort of God.

In France - Survey in 2007
69% Declare "belonging" to religion with 29% Do not belong/ "Without Religion"
38% Believe in God : 37% Dont know if God exists : 22% Believe no God exists
http://www.tns-sofres.com/etudes/pol/050407_religion.pdf

Zoom on beliefs of people "Without Religion"
1999 survey,http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/2001/09/VIDAL/15587#nb2

Because "without religion" is by no means, synonymous with "atheist".

29% of "no-religion" declare as "convinced atheists" but
23% believe in God,
26% to "a kind of spirit or life force",
26% to life after death,
12% in heaven,
7% to hell,
15% to sin,
23% in reincarnation (7).

Religious ceremonies seem important for the birth (33%), marriage (39%) and death (46%).
As for parallel beliefs (Charm objects, Seers, healers, astrology), according to the 1998 survey, while 49% reject, 33% hesitate and 18% believe.

Traditional parallel those beliefs are much more prevalent among young people, where they develop over the last ten years. Also, to varying degrees depending on their level of belief, "without religion" are becoming more open to sexual, more reserved towards the death penalty, most intransigent in terms of secularism, more confident in science. They are politically more to the left than Catholics.

169. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #249861 by Nairb on September 18, 2008 at 3:20 pm

TWP

Yup, accents are a turn on almost universally, dont know why.

170. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #249858 by Nairb on September 18, 2008 at 3:18 pm

Goatboy
If you want to convince on the percentage of Muslims in europe then post some statistics from a reliable organisation - like a statistics office. Or show your own stats and calculations.

Why do you feel a video would convince people?

171. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #249851 by Nairb on September 18, 2008 at 3:11 pm

Fanusi

You keep asking for the document I posted. But if you really wanted to find it you would go through my comments to find it like you did originally when I posted it. At the time you read through it and in the end thanked me for the information.

Could it be you just want to complain about me not giving you the document.
What else would you like me to give you?

A cup of tea perhaps?

172. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #249826 by Nairb on September 18, 2008 at 2:48 pm

Some figures I found say that about 8% of France's population is Muslim, but the key figure seems to be that among the under-20s the proportion is 20-25%.

Sargeist
Where did you see such figures for under 20s?

The INSEE (Statistics Office) have published on that. The figure is like 7% for all the other age groups.

On the Model
For the purpose of your model you are assuming 3 kids per muslim. But be aware neither Algerian nor Moroccan nor Tunisian nor Turkish women have so many kids today.

Also expect falling TFR's amongst muslims for the next 20 years as education and wealth goes up.

I think you should take something like 2.2 in your model not 3 for Muslim TFR

But your models approach is good. You need to go a bit further and then start plugging in the moree realistic numbers.

However you can already see from your model an upper bound on muslim percentages.

173. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #249798 by Nairb on September 18, 2008 at 2:29 pm

Al
:-) Dropped only once?

That cowardly stuff comes from WW2 when we got beat up by the Germans. To be fair it was coming to us. And the Germans had a pretty good war machine. They didnt overrun all of Europe and then fight Russua , UK Commonwealth and USA at the same time without being awesomely organised. But go back further and we are fighting with every Nation in europe. Numerous peoples revolutions are not really a sign of cowardice either.

I wasnt having a go at Americans ( as Fanusi eagerly tries to show)
I get on great with Americans even republicans. Like visiting and lots of extended family there. Always get a great welcome there.

174. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #249590 by Nairb on September 18, 2008 at 10:31 am

TWP
Didnt know Galvestonsn was disgusting

Yes if there is one good thing about france it is that its very very secular.

175. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #249583 by Nairb on September 18, 2008 at 10:25 am

Al

Yes, but we dont have just positive aspects

AND
We dont get drunk before committing adultery!!

Shocking idea

176. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #249575 by Nairb on September 18, 2008 at 9:59 am

TWP
Yes, but at least you also have developed a culture of exercise to fight it.

By the way , hows Texas, last I heard it was going to be under 20 feet of water for a while. Would n't like to have my beach house in Galveston...

177. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #249565 by Nairb on September 18, 2008 at 9:39 am

Al

:-) Glad you agree.
No duress

If yo u see anyone following you around with a baguette under his arm.....

178. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #249562 by Nairb on September 18, 2008 at 9:35 am

TWP

:-) Funny. Unfortunately French are catching up fast. Bloody McDonalds are everywhere

179. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #249557 by Nairb on September 18, 2008 at 9:28 am

If I say:
30% of americans are Fat
20% of French are Fat
Americans are Fat because they are Lazy.

Are you convinced?

No? Why Not?

Because the statistics are on the FAT variable only.
There is no data on the other variable and no correlation
And even if correlation was shown. I haven't shown causation.

180. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #249552 by Nairb on September 18, 2008 at 9:18 am

Fanusi

I know what you would say.

I am interested to hear what Al has to say.

181. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #249546 by Nairb on September 18, 2008 at 9:11 am

Al,

My postings reflect my disgust not any hysteria

Like I said I have an open mind on any of this.

But to be convinced I need something more then a table of statistics interspersed with insubstantiated claims.

I need an intelligent argument backed by evidence

Do you see his statistics are only a background for his unsubstantiated and pretty wild claims.

Its as silly as saying all americans are Fat and Lazy.

Surely you are not saying this article convinced you of anything ?

182. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #249534 by Nairb on September 18, 2008 at 8:57 am

Al

I am not saying you agree with him.
But if someone wants to be convincing .... they need to be convincing

Ok?

I am open minded on this, but .....convincing

Not ... what? ....Double take ... Holy f***? Wow..... Am I supposed to be convenced now?

PS He's less convincing the Powells pictures of th Truck that was a mobile misile launcher

183. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #249528 by Nairb on September 18, 2008 at 8:44 am

Jesus,... These guys sell books with this nonsense

I am getting tired of stating the Blatantly Obvious!!

I mean I might agree with him if only he wasn't being highly embarassing.

I mean Are there any Intelligent people out there saying something meaningful and insightful on Islam with even a half baked attempt to be serious and professional - with evidence backing them up?

184. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #249525 by Nairb on September 18, 2008 at 8:39 am

When Muslims approach 10% of the population, they tend to increase lawlessness

On his Astrology chart or his crystal ball?

In science one woldhave to define muslim areas carefully (on a worldwide basis)
Collect statistics on "lawlessness" worldwide for those same areas.
Then you need to eliminate other variables from the model ( good luck)

Then establish a correlation of the the two sets of data ( which you have reduced to mathematical variables - good luck)

Then you would need to use those past variables to predict in the future and CHECK Carefully

Because as anyone with stocks will know "past performance is not necessarily a predictor of future performance"

Does anyone think he did this?
Nah , Its his Crystal Ball. Maybe it needs an new battery.

185. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #249510 by Nairb on September 18, 2008 at 8:14 am

Today's 1.5 billion Muslims make up 22% of the world's population. But their birth rates dwarf the birth rates of Christians, Hindus, Buddhists, Jews, and all other believers. Muslims will exceed 50% of the world's population by the end of this century.

This is the best one :-)

India China, South America and Europe will have course been zapped by their Islamic Lasers so they dont count.

Perhaps someone should point him to the TFR projections by the CIA.

186. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #249506 by Nairb on September 18, 2008 at 8:09 am

When Muslims approach 10% of the population, they tend to increase lawlessness as a means of complaint about their conditions. In Paris , we are already seeing car-burnings.

For Pity sake
Muslims have been above 10% in areeas of Paris and other cities for decades.

There was riots once in about 3 decades and not necessarily where the are at 10%. And because of that the guy derives a worldwide conclusion.

187. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #249501 by Nairb on September 18, 2008 at 8:04 am

Al
Where does this PLONKER come from? France ?

So where to start hmmmm.
"the minority Muslim populations live in ghettos" TRUE, some do not all FFS
"within which they are 100% Muslim " FALSE
and within which they live by Sharia Law. FALSE & HILARIOUS
"The national police do not even enter these ghettos." FALSE
"There are no national courts, nor schools, nor non-Muslim religious facilities" FALSE unless you define a ghetto as a singe building
The children attend madrasses. HILARIOUS, there is like 1 muslim high school in France.

Muslim Imams and extremists exercise more power than the national average would indicate. REALLY , such as?

188. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #249027 by Nairb on September 17, 2008 at 12:37 pm

Regarding Sharia thats fine so long as they are actively trying to get rid of the seperation of church and state.

Just realised my comment was a bit confusing.

Al thought I was saying "Sharia is just fine!!!"
After all the stuff about Sharia courts in the UK.... :-)

Sharia has about as much chance of getting in here as a Cross in a public school. None

189. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #249015 by Nairb on September 17, 2008 at 12:08 pm

TWP
Funny :-)

Al , You need to look elsewhere for "Anger Management classes" :-)

190. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #249005 by Nairb on September 17, 2008 at 11:57 am

Al
What the fu*** is wrong with you.
Do you need anger management classes.

Im fu**ing agreeing with you!

191. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #249003 by Nairb on September 17, 2008 at 11:54 am

Al

You said that sharia can be something in the heart.
Those are your words.

Thats why I say the action you propose is fine so long as it affects society. Not in someones mind or "heart"

192. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #248999 by Nairb on September 17, 2008 at 11:31 am

Sounds like a sitcom
"Desperate Terrorists" instead of "Fesperate Housewives"

"I am not accountable to anyone"
Unfortunately masks are not needed for this. I know lots of people I worked with who thought they could do nothing or muck thigs up and noone would notice.

193. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #248996 by Nairb on September 17, 2008 at 11:16 am

Al
Just looked at you policy
Aside form the homing devioce for cruise missiles I dont see a lot there thats out of the ordinary. If someone is open to overthrowing the state the government will act - presuming that is what uyou mean by Jihad.

Regarding Sharia thats fine so long as they are actively trying to get rid of the seperation of church and state.

Imams have been deported for hate speech here already.
No specific laws for muslims. Just specific punishment for not respecting the laws of the land.

Similarly for immigration, if someone doesnt get secularism and dont behave taking on secular responsabilities etc then they cannot become a citizen.
- its the current law not a proposal

194. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #248992 by Nairb on September 17, 2008 at 11:07 am

Al

On masks this is the same for any terrorist organisation or probably any bank robber.

The ETA and IRA operate the same way.

Its not their masks that scare its what they do when its on.

195. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #248989 by Nairb on September 17, 2008 at 10:48 am

Usually people hide their identity using masks, This is so that if caught on camera while say robbing a bank or killing someone they are not captured.

So , ... is there something profound here?

196. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #248988 by Nairb on September 17, 2008 at 10:45 am

Al, TWP

Ok on that , IO couldnt give a f***
Out of pure curiousity do tell..

I am more interested in what your proposals are at a society level

197. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #248986 by Nairb on September 17, 2008 at 10:42 am

This thread seems to be on drugs.

If someone has a question I am afraid you are going to have to repeat it.

Al
That stuff about masks is your question. Answer it yourself

TWP
I didnt agree to be some designated answerer of questions. If you have a question ask it now

198. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #248983 by Nairb on September 17, 2008 at 10:35 am

10% of 80 million: 8,000,000
10% of 8 million: 800,000.
That number is greater than the population of San Francisco.
Good luck.

By the same calculation, todays number of Potential Muslim Extremists is of the same order of magnitude.

The problem with all this is that it is potential threats. In France we have been dealing with exremists for a generation particularly during the Algerian civil war so I dont feel this is anything hugely disturbing.

What are you suggesting? I have mentioned my point of view on immigration and protecting the secular state. Are you saying something new is needed in France?

199. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #248977 by Nairb on September 17, 2008 at 10:22 am

Fanusi

Its in the original document. You can get it in my posts.

200. Sharia courts operating in Britain

Comment #248976 by Nairb on September 17, 2008 at 10:21 am

Al

I am afraid I have lost you
I dont think I have asked you any question here