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Comment #95039 by steve99 on December 7, 2007 at 8:05 am
The medically trained may disagree with me but I think that Dan is displaying this lack of lucidity and also exhibiting the signs of distress that it induces as one realize the loss of facalty.
252. Daniel Dennett Debates Dinesh D'Souza
Comment #95034 by steve99 on December 7, 2007 at 7:55 am
I can't think of any high profile cosmologist handling this issue the way you do. Maybe you could point us to some examples.
The "fine tuning" issue is an interesting question that is discussed, yes, but you're pushing a conclusion stemming from that issue like no other cosmologist does.
It would be odd to see a pencil balanced on its point only because we know from experience that state to be a precarious position for a pencil.
Yes, and in this case, you're adding the assumption that the tightly restricted values we see in the universe are in a precariously arrived at state (like a pencil balanced on its point).
253. Daniel Dennett Debates Dinesh D'Souza
Comment #95015 by steve99 on December 7, 2007 at 7:11 am
Such arguments from authority are not evidence. It could be a belief held by 80% of physicists and still, the belief itself would not be evidence.
Because the slightest change to the fundamental laws of nature would make life impossible, therefore it is highly unlikely that the universe should be suitable for life.
We just don't know.
As an argument for God, "Fine Tuning of the Universe" is a non-starter,
254. Daniel Dennett Debates Dinesh D'Souza
Comment #94953 by steve99 on December 7, 2007 at 3:38 am
We do it all the time in Bayesian modeling. You need your prior distributions to be flexible enough that when you update it using some kind of iterative process (say Monte Carlo Markov chains) it will explore a large enough area of parameter space. If you have too few parameters you'll get stuck in some small region in parameter space forever.
Ah, in a sense they are quite arbitrary in the sense that they are ad hoc, there is no real physical or conceptual reasons why they should be there. They are there just because string theorists need to carry through certain calculations.
255. Daniel Dennett Debates Dinesh D'Souza
Comment #94946 by steve99 on December 7, 2007 at 3:13 am
Not if you cannot update or check your distribution.
As I said, the reason you assume a convenient prior in statistical inference is that you want to learn something about the distribution, pending new data, not as a way to make assertions that cannot be tested. Here you cannot get new data to update or test the prior distribution because we can only access one universe.
Also, you mention string theory. In string theory ad hoc dimensions are introduced just for calculations to go through so parsimony should not be a main concern for string theorists anyway.
One can also argue for a less parsimonious distribution because it has more parameters and more degrees of freedom and therefore more room to fiddle with like the extra dimensions in string theory.
256. Daniel Dennett Debates Dinesh D'Souza
Comment #94934 by steve99 on December 7, 2007 at 2:49 am
You cannot assume any distribution if you have no way to update it. Parsimony is not used this way.
257. Daniel Dennett Debates Dinesh D'Souza
Comment #94928 by steve99 on December 7, 2007 at 2:36 am
In other words, because the analogy is flawed, it says nothing about the original claim.
But, again: we don't know if these constants can change, by how much and with what probability.
It would only look odd, because we have seen many pencils in many situations and we have a pretty good statistical sample in our heads to know what the probability distribution is and this is the reason we will find this situation very improbable. If we've never seen anything ever remotely resembling a pencil and this is the first and only time we do, then why should we be surprised at its pose? We may be interested in it, but no reason for surprise? Again, false analogy.
I can't see the logic: If you have a single sample of an event, and you have no a priori reason to assume any probability distribution, then I think the only logical conclusion is that you can't say anything about how likely this event is.
It only has the potential to be evidence for god, if we ever find that the these constants are indeed very improbable.
258. Daniel Dennett Debates Dinesh D'Souza
Comment #94908 by steve99 on December 7, 2007 at 1:48 am
More crucially, what exactly is your null hypothesis?
How do you put a uniform distribution on an infinite domain?
Physicists are looking for explanatory theories, not just some phenomenological models through ad hoc data fitting like in biology, that is not how physics works.
259. Why Science Will Triumph Only When Theory Becomes Law
Comment #94896 by steve99 on December 7, 2007 at 1:18 am
, let alone the entire life forms working in harmony and PURPOSEFUL DESIGN on this planet.
260. Daniel Dennett Debates Dinesh D'Souza
Comment #94890 by steve99 on December 7, 2007 at 1:02 am
I hope you see now that he comparison with the constants in our universe is invalid.
We have no idea of the probability distribution.
We can not speak of any probabilities here because we only have a single sample.
261. Daniel Dennett Debates Dinesh D'Souza
Comment #94822 by steve99 on December 6, 2007 at 5:19 pm
viz there is (or very probably is) a fine-tuner.
Getting speculative now: Taking the argument itself, it asserts that it is 'extremely improbable' that the constants should be what they are. But why should such a statement mean anything more than what it says in itself, ie that the particular values are improbable?
It is extremely improbable that the H20 molecules in a glass of water at a particular instant in time be configured as they are, but that improbability does not tell us anything metaphysical as it were. If they all were at one instant to move to the centre of the glass, say, and leave the edges dry, that would have the same 'extreme improbability' as any other configuration. So if it were to happen could you say that it 'meant' anything or indeed proved anything, other than that something improbable had happened?
262. Why Science Will Triumph Only When Theory Becomes Law
Comment #94784 by steve99 on December 6, 2007 at 2:22 pm
I wonder where all that anger comes from.
263. Why Science Will Triumph Only When Theory Becomes Law
Comment #94644 by steve99 on December 6, 2007 at 6:35 am
I, like others, am fed up of the free ride religious claims get by not having to go through the same sanity check everything else has to in order to be accepted as valid.
264. Why Science Will Triumph Only When Theory Becomes Law
Comment #94568 by steve99 on December 6, 2007 at 1:55 am
Seriously, how can you darwinists ever truly expect to be taken seriously by anyone who is interested in truth and reason.
265. Highway to hysteria
Comment #94480 by steve99 on December 5, 2007 at 6:20 pm
We need another Brit-pop invasion to straighten us out.
266. Daniel Dennett Debates Dinesh D'Souza
Comment #94476 by steve99 on December 5, 2007 at 6:01 pm
Still, until we find a way to test the multiverse hypothesis, in fairness I feel I can't judge its relative probability in comparison to the deist god, whatever that might be.
Did you read about that physicist-surfer dude's geometric model of gravity-space-time that epeeist posted?
267. Daniel Dennett Debates Dinesh D'Souza
Comment #94464 by steve99 on December 5, 2007 at 5:31 pm
Would a cup of God be more or less parsimonious than a cup of infinite universes?
268. Daniel Dennett Debates Dinesh D'Souza
Comment #94461 by steve99 on December 5, 2007 at 5:26 pm
As usual, Dr B. sums things up so well.
We will look silly if we dismiss the fine tuning argument. It is a real problem based on our current knowledge. The way we deal with theists is not to try and dismiss fine tunining, but to point out that if we have no answer to the fine tuning problem; that we are a 1 in ten to the power 1000 chance, that is absolutely nothing to the fine tuning of reality that would allow a vast omnipotent supermind to exist, out of nothing. That is a chance of 1 in ten to the power 1000,000,000,000,0000 ... and on, and on, and on beyond any number imaginable. And that number is not just the probability. It is the exponent to which ten is raised to give the probability (just to sound impressive).
If the creationists are going to say that the universe being fine tuned is a bit unlikely in terms of probability, then we need to point out that God is "quite a bit" more unlikely, so does not solve the problem.
I think that is the approach - not to deny there is a problem at all.
269. Interview with Christopher Hitchens
Comment #94455 by steve99 on December 5, 2007 at 5:12 pm
ADH:
Bye for now
270. Interview with Christopher Hitchens
Comment #94450 by steve99 on December 5, 2007 at 5:07 pm
Steve, thankfully those of us with high moral values, and a genuine love for our fellow man, realize the bible got this one TOTALLY wrong. A loving, repectful relationship between ANY two people is a wonderful thing. It's the true epitome of our lives on earth.
271. Interview with Christopher Hitchens
Comment #94439 by steve99 on December 5, 2007 at 4:46 pm
The gospels by the way are not a rule book, as I said earlier, but a story - our story. They are not a list of what we have to get right in order to make it in.
But I believe that God is the embodiment of Justice, the source of our very conception of justice.
272. Interview with Christopher Hitchens
Comment #94428 by steve99 on December 5, 2007 at 4:23 pm
God will obviously bring all the others you mention, and many more besides, face to face with himself on different terms. I have no idea how that happens.
273. Interview with Christopher Hitchens
Comment #94424 by steve99 on December 5, 2007 at 4:15 pm
I may be wrong.
He actually liberates us
274. Interview with Christopher Hitchens
Comment #94395 by steve99 on December 5, 2007 at 3:21 pm
But that does not mean there is anything slavish about the Christian faith. I know there are a lot of people here who see "following Christ" as moronic personality-cramping, uniformity. Quite the opposite! It is true that some Christian churches and leaders insist on the kind of conformity that Christ never demanded.
275. Daniel Dennett Debates Dinesh D'Souza
Comment #94294 by steve99 on December 5, 2007 at 7:22 am
We don't know weather or not our apparently "fine tuned" state is an unlikely state for the universe to be in or not, and yet theists making the finely tuned universe argument rely on the assumption that it must be exceedingly unlikely. That's an unfounded assumption.
String theorists are still struggling to even demonstrate that their mathematical theory has scientific validity. String mathematics are not yet part of science.
And no other science has yet (to my knowledge) been able to assess the probabilities which the "fined-tuned" argument relies upon.
276. Beyond Belief 07: Enlightenment 2.0
Comment #94281 by steve99 on December 5, 2007 at 6:40 am
We seem to be arguing from to different places... you are talking philosophy and I am trying yo look at it from a scientific perspective...
Well, for me personally it was brilliant in the sense that it got me thinking about the universe in a way I had never thought before... So perhaps I should of said personally brilliant.
277. Beyond Belief 07: Enlightenment 2.0
Comment #94274 by steve99 on December 5, 2007 at 6:27 am
Nobody has claimed it is nothing more than a hypothesis... not even me... so what?
278. Beyond Belief 07: Enlightenment 2.0
Comment #94271 by steve99 on December 5, 2007 at 6:16 am
Surely that would be a noble scientific persuit and I don't see in what sense that is glib.
279. Beyond Belief 07: Enlightenment 2.0
Comment #94269 by steve99 on December 5, 2007 at 5:58 am
Surely the point Atkins was making is that if you 'kick a brick' and kick nothing you are essentially kicking the same thing... It was a scientific statement about a possible state of the universe and not a philosophical point... In other words nothingness is really stuff.
280. Daniel Dennett Debates Dinesh D'Souza
Comment #94262 by steve99 on December 5, 2007 at 5:48 am
It's scientists who are the first to come with something that sometimes seems absolutely insane to explore and describe it.
281. Nurses Told to Turn Muslims' Beds to Mecca
Comment #94258 by steve99 on December 5, 2007 at 5:39 am
it seems most of us would be ready to accept this sorry tale - as reported in the Express - as truth.
282. Beyond Belief 07: Enlightenment 2.0
Comment #94256 by steve99 on December 5, 2007 at 5:29 am
I'm amazed at how aggressive Shermer was toward Harold Kroto... Whatever a person thinks of the Templeton Foundation... Kroto should get his facts right before throwing such accusations around... You'd think a Nobel Prize winner would know better.
The most brilliant comment at the conference: "Nothing and something are the same" Peter Atkins
283. Interview with Christopher Hitchens
Comment #94226 by steve99 on December 5, 2007 at 3:53 am
ADH: I have been researching Buddhism for years. Buddhism is often combined with local religious beliefs into a compound system.
If you want to find out what Buddhism is, ask Buddhists. Go to Buddhist websites. This research is not hard to do.
What Christians say to this is that if theism is true, then that is what really matters, whether or not it is useful. Buddhism's fous and its appeal for Westerners lies in its usefulness. For many punters it is a chic and sophisticated form of stress-relief. On that basis, it does not take long for the "meme" to propagate itself.
It is irrelevant. It is unquestionable that a vast number of Buddhists are atheists. They don't believe in a personal god or gods who intervene in human affairs. The fact that they may believe in a supernatural aspect to reality simply illustrates how broad the term 'atheist' is. It shows how silly any claims of "atheist thinking" or "atheist morality" are. You can't generalise.
And why does it matter if Buddhism is chic? Much of it is a sensible philosophical approach to life. You can be a Buddhist while avoiding the baggage of belief in the supernatural, miracles and so on. Surely that makes more sense than Christianity, with all its magic? You get the moral guidelines with out all the heaven and hell :)
For many punters it is a chic and sophisticated form of stress-relief.
Good :)
284. Interview with Christopher Hitchens
Comment #94198 by steve99 on December 5, 2007 at 2:30 am
People throng into and around shrines and temples and pray to the deities that happen to be enshined there.
285. Chimps beat humans in memory test
Comment #94189 by steve99 on December 5, 2007 at 1:42 am
I don't see what all the fuss is about. Bats can see in the dark, and we can't. Dolphins can echoloct, and we can't, dogs can ind their way home over miles of uncharted territory, and we can't. So what's the big deal?
Humans are the first species on earth to have the ability to pass information down through the generations.
286. Daniel Dennett Debates Dinesh D'Souza
Comment #94182 by steve99 on December 5, 2007 at 1:18 am
The other non-complexity supporting states that are hypothetically modeled, might not be possibilities at all, or maybe they were possible, but less likely. We simply don't know.
287. Daniel Dennett Debates Dinesh D'Souza
Comment #94180 by steve99 on December 5, 2007 at 1:16 am
Agreeing with you somewhat steve99, I believe the fine-tuning argument is a very good argument for God, one of very few that I take really seriously.
288. Interview with Christopher Hitchens
Comment #94024 by steve99 on December 4, 2007 at 3:40 pm
Actually, I have to point out that atheists are a tiny minority when it comes to "the rest of mankind".
289. Banishing the Green-Eyed Monster
Comment #94020 by steve99 on December 4, 2007 at 3:34 pm
It hit a lot of people pretty hard. Read the posts. I think I've explained enough why it hit me.
290. Banishing the Green-Eyed Monster
Comment #93938 by steve99 on December 4, 2007 at 1:28 pm
Second: I have somehow established an emotional and intellectual bond-at-a-distance with Dawkins.
291. Beyond Belief 07: Enlightenment 2.0
Comment #93923 by steve99 on December 4, 2007 at 1:11 pm
All he is saying is that it is naive to think that religion is the main cause of terrorism.
292. Beyond Belief 07: Enlightenment 2.0
Comment #93922 by steve99 on December 4, 2007 at 1:00 pm
P.S. I looked up Harris' bio. He was an English and philosophy major then somehow got into a Ph.D. program in neuroscience after being mostly stoned for 11 years. How does that work??
293. Beyond Belief 07: Enlightenment 2.0
Comment #93902 by steve99 on December 4, 2007 at 12:33 pm
and Harris merely philosophizes based on newspaper clippings
294. Daniel Dennett Debates Dinesh D'Souza
Comment #93893 by steve99 on December 4, 2007 at 12:11 pm
surely if there were different laws then it stands to reason that life maybe not as we know it, (Sorry Spock :oP) could surely exist within it anyway?
295. Banishing the Green-Eyed Monster
Comment #93891 by steve99 on December 4, 2007 at 12:04 pm
Well then, you don't know much about human nature, I'm sorry to say. Most people have "cultish minds". People will often idealize the very person who tells them to rise up and burn their idols. Psychology 101, my scientist-genius-arrogant friend. Religion 101.
296. Interview with Christopher Hitchens
Comment #93882 by steve99 on December 4, 2007 at 11:42 am
LOL!
ADH is a christian, I'm calling him on motive (again, based on the interaction I've had with him previously and his zoo cages comment), and I'm the troll? That's rich!
ADH must be SO amused!
297. Banishing the Green-Eyed Monster
Comment #93881 by steve99 on December 4, 2007 at 11:39 am
Mango:
But I do think some people devour everything Dr. Dawkins writes and his opinions, uncritically, become their own, and this ought to be acknowledged and discouraged.
In any case, your contempt speaks for itself.
298. Banishing the Green-Eyed Monster
Comment #93873 by steve99 on December 4, 2007 at 11:15 am
I concur, agreement with someone certainly doesn't equal 'cultishness.' But when Dr. Dawkins writes a rambling, contentious piece and after 300+ posts about it someone merely writes, "I agree with every word" it does send to my nose a whiff of something worrying. Call it cultishness or don't, but it's something to be aware of.
299. Banishing the Green-Eyed Monster
Comment #93870 by steve99 on December 4, 2007 at 11:04 am
Obviously not everyone who posts here is in the same state of mind, but some do exhibit hero-worship tendencies. Maybe this article has drawn the distinction among them.
300. Interview with Christopher Hitchens
Comment #93867 by steve99 on December 4, 2007 at 11:00 am
what's the matter, ADH?
Lacking enough negative attention in the real world these days?