Comments by Nairb

Comment #223787 by Nairb on August 3, 2008 at 12:19 pm

Fanusi

So, for the moment, thanks! Seriously, that is the best news I've heard in a long, long time. Though I'd still like a while to check everything for myself, fair?

I am glad to hear that you are a lot more optimistic about Europeans and less worried about muslims.

There's still other factors that make this worrying, though. One is the problems of the multicultural state, which is, in effect, a vacuum, a nonentity. You can't 'integrate' with that.

Agreed this would be a worry. But all countries realise this now. Also some countries in Europe are much less multicultural then others. France because of its integrationist approach to education integrated huge numbers of immigrants around the beginning of the 20th century.

.

The main problems then are the collapsing European fertility rates .

Finally I agree European fertility has fallen significantly over the past 30 years but it has stabilised and fertility is now bouncing back again in some European countries. Europe usually goes through demographic changes before the rest of the world. Now those demographic declines are happening to other countries and a new change is occurring in Europe ( growing TFR).
You may have heard that in a poll Europeans would like to have 2.3 children but don't have them due to economic and practical obstacles. The EU is looking for ways to address this using the techniques already working in Sweden and France and elsewhere where TFR is growing.

352. Why Islam Is Unfunny for a Cartoonist

Comment #223750 by Nairb on August 3, 2008 at 10:41 am

80. Comment #223627 by Fanusi Khiyal on August 3, 2008 at 1:15 am

Nairb I responded to the rather lengthy document elsewhere. Again, could I ask your source for the numbers you posted above?

Shoot, forgot to get round to this., Nairb. Sorry, I was reading those for the population changes across Europe. You can read my criticism back on the Breeding thread.

Fanusi
I have responded to your comments on the Breeding for God thread.In particular I adressed the TFR point you make with data from the CIA that underline and reinforce my argument.

I think it is clear now why 16% muslims in Europe in 2050 is a pretty confident prediction - even a high prediction.

Why do I say it is high?
It assumes TFR remains static (when in fact TFR is insteep decline amongst muslims worldwide)
It assumes stable immigration when all european governements are evaluating capping or changing policies.France has done this already with a 12% reduction since 2006.

353. Breeding for God

Comment #223743 by Nairb on August 3, 2008 at 10:25 am

Fanusi

You mention Muslim Fertility rates as 3.1. This is a gross overestiimate for most muslim populations.

It is wrong in particular for the large muslim countries immigrationg to Europe where rates are falling fast (currently around 2.3 on average)

For undisputable details see below.
I think you provided the following link to the CIA Fertility rate tables on wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_territories_by_fertility_rate
Source Table 1 CIA TFR Ranking

Country TFR 2000
98 Morocco 3.13
88 Egypt 3.15
155 Algeria 2.80
168 Tunisia 2.04
119 Turkey 2.23
130 Iran 2.12

Country TFR 2008
98 Morocco 2.57
88 Egypt 2.72
155 Algeria 1.82
168 Tunisia 1.73
119 Turkey 2.14
130 Iran 2.04

354. Breeding for God

Comment #223735 by Nairb on August 3, 2008 at 10:07 am

I think I have shown that Muslim populations are not exploding.

It is growing slowly and the growth is slowing in Europe and elsewhere. Fanusi you yourself have posted evidence in support this.

Comment #223352 by Fanusi Khiyal on August 2, 2008 at 4:39 am
Interestingly though, while discussing this with you, I came across an article in the Asia times that argues that there is a thirty-year window for Islam to achieve its objectives in Europe before it hits the demographic wall itself.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/GH23Aa01.html

Furthermore there is strong evidence of convergence of Fertility rates indicating the middle scenario below. There is recent evidence of reduced immigration indicating the low scenario.

In all scenarios muslims will not have more then 19% of European population in 2050.

A. In the extreme case of continued high immigration and no convergence of Fertility rates the population of muslims in Europe will be 19% in 2050.

B. In the middle case of continued high immigration and convergence of Fertility rates the muslim population is 15% in 2050.

C. In the low case of reduced immigration and convergence of Fertility rates the muslim population is 9% in 2050.

355. Breeding for God

Comment #223724 by Nairb on August 3, 2008 at 9:46 am

489. Comment #223623 by Fanusi Khiyal on August 3, 2008 at 1:02 am

If it were Shariah based financing alone, that wouldn't be too much of a worry. But I see it as part of a large process of Islamization. I connect the dots and the picture is frightening. It links up with things like the French riots and the encroachments on freedom of speech and the craven dhimmitude of our politicians.

Nobody in France puts the French riots down to islamisization despite extensive analysis since.
Its easy to see why �" no religious figures were involved or endorsed actions. The rioters themselves made no demands. The rioters were often gangland misfits or thugs looking to assert themselves against police.

Here are a few other snapshots from Eurabia:

There is no such place as Eurabia. As far as I can see it's a term to create fear of Arabs or Muslims.

However, they do also mention that the rate of radicalization increases and islamic identity get's stronger amongst further generations of Muslims.

Not in the document. I believe you may have misunderstood. The document quotes typical arguments made by people before analysing the data and knocking down or clarifying the basis of those arguments.

356. Breeding for God

Comment #223711 by Nairb on August 3, 2008 at 9:23 am

Take Spain, whose fertility rate is 1.1. That is, their population halves with each generation. .

Not true. Fertility rates of 1 does not mean the population halves in one generation. It means that in 4 or 5 generations it will. (provided the above fertility rate is maintained for the 4 or 5 generations. In a population there is always 4 or 5 generations..

Or France. If France goes Muslim majority, then we are talking about a Muslim majority nuclear power right in the heart of Europe

As shown before France will never become a muslim makority. Even with immigration muslims will be no more then 16% in 2050.

Even if those populations do reach replacement level, immigration won't stop, because of the basketcase nature of many of those states.

Immigration policy has already been changed in France 2 years ago and it has already had an effect.
Furthermore Sarkozy is using his presidency of the Euriopean Union to have other states use the same approach.

Context
Immigration has already been greatly reduced from that of the 60s. In fact immigration is mainly due to family reunions.

My English Summary
In 2006 the laws were changed to make this more difficult and to move topwards professional immigration rather then family reunion.You should be aware that this is already had an effect with a 12% reduction in the past 12 months of this year Furthermore 29.729 illegal immigrants have been deported and increase of 31%.

French article (SOURCE : Assemblée Nationale française) French National Lower House
Les lois du 24 juillet 2006 et du 20 novembre 2007, qui ont déjà fait l'objet de cinq décrets d'application, dotent la France de nouveaux instruments juridiques pour promouvoir l'immigration professionnelle et maîtriser l'immigration familiale.

Parallèlement, l'immigration familiale, croissante depuis les deux chocs pétroliers, a chuté de 12,6 % en un an : 84.921 personnes ont été accueillies à ce titre du 1er juin 2007 au 31 mai 2008, contre 97.125 au cours de l'année précédente.
Du 1er juin 2007 au 31 mai 2008, 29.729 immigrés clandestins ont été reconduits dans leur pays d'origine, soit une augmentation sans précédent de 31 % par rapport à l'année précédente.
Depuis le 1er janvier, à la demande du président de la République, il s'est rendu dans les vingt-six autres Etats membres, qui ont tous manifesté de l'intérêt pour sa démarche.

http://appablog.wordpress.com/2008/07/28/immigration-france-union-europeenne-pacte-europeen-sur-l'immigration-et-l'asile-audition-du-ministre-francais-de-limmigration-de-lintegration-de-lidentite-nationale-et/

357. Why Islam Is Unfunny for a Cartoonist

Comment #223632 by Nairb on August 3, 2008 at 2:14 am

Fanusi

I posted the document sources already.

Here is the calculation methodologies

From population pyramid
You can calculate from 30% child rearing age and 2.5 children. Then add this to the population. Divide this mount by 20 years which is the period of childbearing.

From population growth rates
To check, look at Moroccan or North african population growth rates. These are available on the internet also.
Assume indiginous muslims to be slightly below actual moroccans.ie around growth rate of 1.2%

You will find each approach corooborates the other.

Even if you assume higher birth rates or growth rates equivalent to general moroccan population. It still wont change the picture significantly.

358. Why Islam Is Unfunny for a Cartoonist

Comment #223624 by Nairb on August 3, 2008 at 1:03 am

Old Sarum
Thanks for the link.

I think all humour of itself is harmless .

The issue I think is that when it is extreme and focused on one group and broadcast generally it can be equivalent with racist hate propaganda.

It would be interesting to see if his harmless humour is limited to mulims.

Also I fail to see what instructive message can be taken from an imam doing it with a goat.

359. Why Islam Is Unfunny for a Cartoonist

Comment #223616 by Nairb on August 3, 2008 at 12:13 am

Populist politicians in general just need a group "different form the norm" to blame

Please make sure to not confuse politicians and intellectuals that attack the Islam with those that attack religion in general, for their motives are totally different.

Good post

360. Why Islam Is Unfunny for a Cartoonist

Comment #223614 by Nairb on August 2, 2008 at 11:51 pm

The "projection" below is wrong and grossly exagerates muslim population growth.

About 6% of Holland's 16.3 million people are Muslims, and nearly half of Amsterdam's population is of foreign origin. Some predict the city could have a Muslim majority within a decade or so.

Here is a much better estimate.

Holland receives 20,000 muslim immigrants per year out of a grand total of 100,000 immigrants mainly from Europe and Americas. So 20% of immigrants are muslim.
So lets take 1/10 (double the expected figure) or 2,000 muslims settling in central Amsterdam every year. Then that would add another 40,000 muslims over 2 decades.

In a decade expect an increase of about 13% if the Muslim population. In 2 decades about 28%

So you have
Current Muslims 200,000
Children of first decade 26,000
Children of second decade 30,000
immigrant muslims 40,000
Total = 296,000

Assuming Amsterdam receives no immigrants of other religions and does not have any children. (that's assuming a lot) then the percentage muslims in Amsterdam in 2030 will be 30%

Source for migrants
http://www.migrationinformation.org/datahub/countrydata/data.cfm

Source for growth of muslim Population
Simple math verified against growth rate of Moroccan population.

361. Breeding for God

Comment #223388 by Nairb on August 2, 2008 at 6:32 am

Some more info on European governmental awareness and understanding of demographics published by the Commision.
It also outlines actions and orientations to improve the demographic situation in Europe.

Here is a excerpt of one of their papers.

The challenge of a low birth rate

Increasing productivity, in particular through access to lifelong learning, and increasing employment participation, in particular by creating a real European labour market and a higher level of occupational mobility, are two important ways of doing this, as are increasing the birth rate and immigration.

Europeans have a fertility rate which is insufficient to replace the population. Surveys have revealed the gap which exists between the number of children Europeans would like (2.3) and the number that they actually have (1.5)10.

This means that, if appropriate mechanisms existed to allow couples to have the number of children they want, the fertility rate could rise overall, even though the desired family size varies considerably from one Member State to another.

The low fertility rate is the result of obstacles to private choices: late access to employment,
job instability, expensive housing and lack of incentives (family benefits, parental leave, child
care, equal pay).

Incentives of this kind can have a positive impact on the birth rate and increase employment, especially female employment, as certain countries have shown.

http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/site/en/com/2005/com2005_0094en01.pdf

362. Breeding for God

Comment #223378 by Nairb on August 2, 2008 at 5:55 am

Fanusi

Below is a link to a report created for the European parliament in 2005 to look at the demographic challenge to Europe Union.
So governments are well aware of issues and the techniques to address them and have been for some time.

Its findings are in summary:
- If immigration continues as is we will have approx 16% muslims in europe in 2050.
- If immigration is reduced to family reunions (still 300,000 oper year)then it will stabilise at 9%

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/inddem/docs/papers/The demographic challenge in Europe.pdf

For those who wish there is also an XL tool where you can apply it to your own country.

The main variables driving these models are
1.Initial muslim %
2.Population pyramid (how many in child bearing age usually 30%)
3.TFR
4.Death rates
5.Immigrant numbers

363. Breeding for God

Comment #223360 by Nairb on August 2, 2008 at 4:55 am

Goldy
Your computer has good sense.

The plans have angered some hardline activists who accuse ministers of trying to create state-sponsored Islam.

They are concerned that their virulence might converge with the CoE.... :-)

Actually this looks like the way to go. It cuts out the wahhabi funding and takes better control of private religous education.
A similar approach was proposed by Sarkozy in France but it raised a furore from secularists because it is contrary to the 1905 law of seperation of church and state.

364. Breeding for God

Comment #223338 by Nairb on August 2, 2008 at 3:55 am

Fanusi
Your link is very revealing.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1540895/Young,-British-Muslims-'getting-more-radical'.html

It shows an increasing consciousness of the Government and elected officials and a concern to address the issue. This is very positive.
No one (in the article) is saying this is an insoluble or critical problem, no one is hiding or ignoring the problem.
Just that there appears to be an issue amongst a minority of young muslims who at the same time feel the were treated well in Britain.

In his speech in Birmingham today, Mr Cameron will criticise "simplistic" attempts at community cohesion, such as Gordon Brown's call for people to put up the Union flag.
But he will also challenge elements of the Muslim community for denying women access to work, education, politics and even to mosques;
a move that will please the Tory Right, Mr Cameron will warn that urgent action must be taken to get a grip of an immigration system.

In "There is clearly a conflict within British Islam between a moderate majority that accepts the norms of British democracy and a growing minority that does not."The report also raises questions about the scale of the problems created by Islamophobia, with 84 per cent of those questioned saying they believed they had been "treated fairly" in Britain.

Shahid Malik, the Muslim Labour MP for Dewsbury, said: "This report makes very disturbing reading and it vindicates the concern many of us have that we're not doing enough to confront this issue."

365. Breeding for God

Comment #223325 by Nairb on August 2, 2008 at 3:11 am

Sam Harris said that France would be Muslim majority in twenty-five years and that's if immigration stops tomorrow.
Again, I hope that you're right, but some of these figures are worrying.

Its easy to see (with little math skills) that in 25 years a population will not reach double.
Population of France = 64 Million
Muslim Population = 5 Million.

Its clear that even doubling the muslim population has little effect.
There will never be a muslim majority. The muslim population will stabilise around 16% in Europe.

For info a population with high fertility will usually growing about 25% in such a time. Only women have children and not all women are in the age producing bracket

If Sam Harris said that then I am afraid I have lost respect for him. If he is not any good in Math he should not publish his views without checking by someone is.

366. Breeding for God

Comment #223166 by Nairb on August 1, 2008 at 4:11 pm

4. This means a disaster of Lebanese proportions, at the very least, if these trends aren't stopped and reversed.

The numbers are way too small to be considered a disaster. And even these numbers assume immigration remains the same as today.
You know Lebannon had a civil war also during this time.Also Christians were a lot richer and could migrate to Frannce and US easier.

5. I argue that certain harsh measures, including but not limited to, the expulsion of Shariah supporters, are necessary if this disaster is to be avoided.

Actually expulsion for Sharia supporters will have almost no effect on demographics. You would have to expel 30000 every year to make a dint. I am sure you agree there isn't so many sharia supporters.
I have met quite a number of muslims and I cannot think of one that would think of abusing their wife or stoning homosexuals as you described.

367. Breeding for God

Comment #223165 by Nairb on August 1, 2008 at 4:07 pm

2. This is bad news, because Islam is an inherently tyrannical, fascistic doctrine that is incompatible with progress or freedom and always treats Infidels in the most heinous manner.

I have not noticed being treated in a heinous manner by the muslims I worked with or met. On the contrary I found them quite friendly and good natured. When my mother in law had a very minor car accident recently with my 2 kids in the car. The person who bumped into her (2nd generation muslim) insisted on bringing her to the hospital in Sarcelles and staying until I arrived.
You know Sarcelles? This is where all the muslims are out of control creating their caliphate (according to youtube anyhow :-)).
It's the Paris suburb area where all the riots and car burnings started in France two years ago.
My wife remarked that an original french person would not have bothered to go to such trouble.

3. Islam is actually more extreme amongst second or third generation immigrants than it is amongst first generation immigrants. There is a variety of studies and surveys that backs this up.

I am interested. I don't believe this at all.
If you had some links to some stidies I would be interested.

I would be potentially willing to accept that this happened in the most recent generation but certainly not as a general rule. Even in this most recent generation I expect we will see it vary from country to country and socioeconomic group. I think certain poorer groups are susceptible to this. Also we need to wait see if this is just an adolescent fad in this generation.

368. Breeding for God

Comment #223163 by Nairb on August 1, 2008 at 4:06 pm

1. There is no question that Islamic populations in Europe multiply far faster than the native ones, leading to what the United Nations calls one of the fastest demographic transformations in human history.

Yes but the real question is what impact does this have.
Fanusi if you mean 1 child more then Europeans converging to the same as Europeans in 50 years then this difference is too small to have an effect demographically
It would take about 50 years for them to grow by 50% their numbers. For example the Muslims in UK are about 1,5 million. In a 2060 years they would be 2.25 million.
If you add in about 30K of muslim immigrants every year then the muslim population will be multiplied by about 3. So 4.5million muslims in UK in a 50 years

So this is not cataclysmic. If you didnt keep stats , you might not even notice.

369. Breeding for God

Comment #223080 by Nairb on August 1, 2008 at 12:29 pm

Thanks Steve, facts speak for themselves (most of the time)

Interesting to note what is happening to fertility rates amongst muslims and the drivers of that reduction.

Fertility Declining in the Middle East and North Africa

Excerpt1
MENA's total fertility rate (TFR), or average number of children born per woman, declined from about seven children in 1960 to three children in 2006.1
Excerpt2
The rising marriage age, along with increases in education and family planning use, has helped lower fertility in the region. The fertility decline of the past few decades is likely to continue, even accelerate, as education, economic opportunities, and access to family planning services expand.

http://www.prb.org/Articles/2008/menafertilitydecline.aspx

Should give support for education of muslim women in europe.

370. Breeding for God

Comment #223071 by Nairb on August 1, 2008 at 11:54 am

354. Comment #222862 by Fanusi Khiyal

Just as an aside, leaving expelling Shariah supporters to one side for a moment, what are your views on my other points:

1. Ending Muslim immigration for at least twenty years, if not indefinitely.

2. Harshly prosecuting any persecution of apostates or honour killings or similar - not just the perpetrators, but those who cook this stuff up. In Denmark, for example, the entire family is prosecuted for murder in the case of honour killing, because it is usually decided by the family, and assigned to one man. Similarly, if an Imam incites members of his congregation to murder apostates, he should be prosecuted.

3. A corollary to 2, Mosques where this is incited should be seized and torn down.

4. There should be a broad based effort to expose Islam for what it is, a process of cultural imperialism. .

On ending Muslim immigration you need to say what you are trying to avoid. If its population explosion you know there is no supporting evidence.

Prosecuting illegal incitekment to violence I believe is already a law �quot; so no change

Seizing assets of criminals already exists though I presume the imam may not be the owner of the mosque. However close monitoring and taking action against imams has already occurred in France at least.

You are within your rights to expose what you wish. If you have a convincing evidence based argument you will have broad based support.

371. Breeding for God

Comment #223068 by Nairb on August 1, 2008 at 11:49 am

310. Comment #222611 by Goldy

Islam is the threat. Islam - the idea, the religion. Not Muslims. They are just people. They can't even agree on what Islam is themselves. By attacking everyone who is a Muslim, you are encouraging them to radicalise as they huddle deeper into their own communities and allow themselves to become open to poisonous political aims cloaked in a veil of religion.

Completely agree with that. It's a self defeating approach.

Comment #222619 by Steve Zara on July 31

If there are people who threaten society, there are civilized ways to deal with them. Use the democratic process to make such threats illegal, then use the courts to sentence such people and apply the appropriate measures, such as fines or imprisonment.

I think this is obvious to the majority of people. To do anything above an beyond this someone needs to convince society of a Real and Present danger. I am afraid I haven't seen any evidence of this today nor of a trend (increasing radicalization)

312. Comment #222623 by decius on July 31

Still, I find current laws generally too weak and ill-prepared to deal with fundamentalism. Also the political will is seriously lacking.

Decius, I think it varies from country to country and subject to subject. UK has a more multiculturalist approach while France has a more integrationist approach, especially in schools. Fanusi mentions Denmarks laws on Honour crimes where the law has been adapted to address the fact that the entire family is involved.

346. Comment #222840 by Fanusi Khiyal on August 1

Secondly, expulsion is more moral. We're not confining them, just giving them what they keep asking for - Shariah law. If they want it, there it is, in Pakistan or Saudi Arabia or Iran. It will also have the beneficial effect of forcing people to choose: You can have Shariah or you can have the benefits of the West, but not both.

For the state to be respected, it cannot descend to level of using the logic of thugs. It needs to be impartial and apply the same law for everyone. Anything less then that is on a slippery slope of ambiguity. Anything becomes possible.
Why not expulse murderers and robbers also? Why stop at Sharia supporters. Perhaps IRA supporters should be sent to the socialist republic of Cuba.

372. Breeding for God

Comment #222567 by Nairb on July 31, 2008 at 2:38 pm

There is a problem to this hypothesis. If cultural shock is the main reason for radicalism the first generation Muslim immigrants should be most radical, not the second. The pattern is actually quite the opposite.

The behaviour of different generation muslims has been studied in depth.

The first generation mulims immigrants , like all immigrants they have voted with their feet courageously to come to their new host country. They are generally humble, try to fit in and appreciative.They dont want to go home.

The 2nd and 3rd generation are not immigrants. They are citizens. While 2nd generation immigrants understand and share partly their parents concern to fit in, 3rd generation consider themselves french point.

They have all the expectations and desires of other citizens of the country.Except often they do not have equal access to those expectations and desires. Neither did their parents but their parentys were immigrants and had chosen to come for a better life. They were happy to put up with their situation in the interests of a better life for their children.

Not so their children. They are French are often living in poor ghettoes. But they have the wrong address, the wrong accent , the wrong school and possibly the wrong name on their CV and the wrong colour.

As a result the unemplyment rate is 5 times higher amongst french citizens of muslim immigration.

Many get authority from the suburban gangs they join.

Intro Wahhabi preachers with lots of money telling them why they are better and more powerful then their neighbours. That is why you get some that become more fanatic.

However the vast majority are not in this context. Theget up early, work hard and get themselves out of poverty.

You have heard of the urban violence accross france 2 years ago.
You can find plenty right wing propaganda on youtube showing how these muslims are so violent and the poor french are so scared and paralysed.

But there was no call for sharia, no caliphate, no call to build mosques.The violence was largely uncoordinated with no central authority and no demands.

And yet these are the most disaffected of muslims in France.

So again, increasing radicalisation of muslim immigrants over the generations is a sham.

373. Breeding for God

Comment #222534 by Nairb on July 31, 2008 at 2:00 pm

qomak

The proposition that successive generations of immigrant muslimes become more fundamentalist is almost certainly untrue.
For sure there is no data supporting it.

But a simple logical analysis will show the opposite.

Point1
There is strong evidence that the number of children in a household is correlated with religion. See article above for one. In other words you can predict one variable from the other.Strong religous views predict high fertility. and vice versa.

Point2
I have posted before how Turkish and Moroccan and other muslim women have less and less children in successive generations. This is true of several if not all countries in Europe. I have seen data for Netherlands, Germany, Austria, France and Sweden.

Put the 2 points together and you can reasonably assume religosity is declining amongst muslims in europe even though they still consider themselves muslim.

Also there is direct evidence that muslims align and appreciate their host country views.

A recent PEW survey showed that muslims in France have the same level (over 80%)of support for seperation of church and state and the secular state in France. This after the huge furor about headscarfs (in reality there are about 10 students that were expelled from schools per year)

If the muslim were becoming more and more fundamentalist you would expect a significant difference in views given that France is the country that has the highest muslim population and % in europe

374. Breeding for God

Comment #222448 by Nairb on July 31, 2008 at 12:39 pm

Steve

Completely agree.
When Jacque Chirac ran a presidential campaign dramatizing urban insecurity and violence he created a situation where there was a run off between himself and LePen( Pseudo Fascist party). A first in French politics.

LePen got 18% in the runoff because every leftwing supporter voted for Chirac (while spitting).

I am glad to say that the participation was alos extermely high as people cut short their holidays to vote against Lepen ( despite knowing he would lose)

This is the kind of effect scaremongering has in Western Europe.

This is the real danger. We are only 50 years from
a fascist right wing nightmare in Europe . Lets not forget it.

375. Breeding for God

Comment #222424 by Nairb on July 31, 2008 at 12:25 pm

Fanusi

Its good that you are so concerned for European civilsation/culture.

If you admire western civilisation and achievements so much why do you have so little confidence in it?

You have little or no respect for achievements made by muslims in any domain and yet you feel we will be overwhelmed by them

Western civilisation has seen off successively the totalitarian regimes and a mafia of interrelated monarchies, the Catholic church, protestant churches, fascism and communism and still established secular just societies.

All of those threats had a stronger powerbase the islam has today.

376. Breeding for God

Comment #222202 by Nairb on July 30, 2008 at 10:22 pm

Yet others say it is to do with increased health concerns about skin cancer and sensitivities to the growing Muslim community.

*Falls over laughing *

Do they want us to believe that people who normally go topless give a f*** about what anyone else thinks about it.

I am trying to imagine the stressed out parisians finally getting to their holidays after driving 9 hours to the south, getting to the beach resort they reserved at extortionate prices, looking around, sees muslims (its stamped on their head)and stops what they were going to do because of risk of offence !

Its just too funny.

Makes me wonder about the Telegraph.

377. Breeding for God

Comment #222059 by Nairb on July 30, 2008 at 2:00 pm

We need a stable, and preferably reducing population for all sorts of reasons.

For what reason?
It would be a first time for humanity.

By exponential I suppose you mean a rapidly increasing population.
I mean a slowly increasing population.

but I don't buy into that idea

Like it or not most europeasn pensions work like this. I like it.

378. Breeding for God

Comment #222041 by Nairb on July 30, 2008 at 1:20 pm

If anyone want's any real suggestions on saving our necks, here's one: End all Muslim immigration, expel all Shariah supporters, and conduct an aggressive campaign to show Islam for what it is, driving the faithful toward apostasy.

I tend to agree with some of what Fanusi says on problems and solutions.

But only some.

I feel some people are exagerating the population issue to incite people to act. They feel the west is sleepwalking into a nightmare situation.
Saying we will not lower our standards to do something about the non secular (muslim) threat only pushes them further.

In any case our "standards" were arbitrarily set twenty years ago in a booming post colonial epoch. There is no reason why we cannot reevaluate or change those standards.

So first of all what is the problem
Anti secular immigrants as a group are growing again in Europe. This after secular europeans having seen off the much bigger threat at the time of christianity
We have so domesticated Chhristianity that we do not feel it right to take a robust response to a new anti secular group ( particularly when they are poor immigrants).

How big is the problem?
A lot less then being swamped in a few generations. Probably muslims wil peak at 15% in 2050 under current tendancies( reducing TFR and controlled immigration). The vast majority will be secular muslims ( currently around 78% of muslims in France). Though this may different in Britain.

What should we do to

Should we maintain our "high" standards and and tolerate or welcome diversity
Should we stop immigration
Should we take a knee jerk reaction and deport all muslims

I for one feel that there is nothing morally wrong with drastically reducing immigration. There is currently talk of capping immigration in France.
But is there a need?

I think we need simply to slow the immigration down. This is appropriate in the current economic climate and will allow us time to integrate properly the immigrants we have.
A good way to do this is to switch to selective and capped immigration based on a points system. You get extra points based on your marketable skill set and understanding and support for secular society.

I believe this is a far better approach for Europe and nothing to be ashamed of.

what should we about integration
Having chosen immigrants rather then reluctantly allowing them in, we should then invest money to ensure the person integrates.
Howver if they do not integrate then they should not have the option to become a naturalised citizen, There should be a citizens test which ensuures the naturalised person is fully aware and supportive of living in a secular egalitarian country.
Innappropriate domineering behaviour to women should be severely frowned on. Domestic violence heavily punished.
Provate Religous schools vetted and obliged to follow a set curriculum.

what should we do about immigrants that dont "get it"
If an immigrant commits a crime - deport him. (not citizens obviously). Inciting hatred or inciting violence is a crime.
If an citizen commits a crime (Inciting hatred or inciting violence is a crime) put him in jail.
There is nothing shocking here.

What should we do about TFR Fertility rates in Europe
Encourage babies fast! Not because we are going to be overrun by Muslims in a few centuries.
Because we are not going to have a pension if we dont !
And thats a lot sooner !

379. Breeding for God

Comment #221442 by Nairb on July 29, 2008 at 4:08 pm

In France the TFR of women has gone up significantly over the past decade to close to the replacement level.
This in part was due to child support programs. These child support programs I believe are being copied in Germany now.

The picture is not anywhere as bad as this articles pretends.

All European countries need to boost child rearing in order to pay for pensions. The pension issue is far more serious. So there certainly will be a government sponsored drive to drive up bith rates.

380. Breeding for God

Comment #221398 by Nairb on July 29, 2008 at 3:26 pm

Another scaremongering article on the population explosion (of muslims) that is supposed to swamp us all.

The occasionally cited figure of 30 per cent ethnic minorities in western Europe by 2050 is little more than an educated guess.

16-18 percent is more often cited I believe including by the European comission.All population projections are educated guesses.

TFR = Total Fertility Rate (total number of childern per mother)
The article does not mention that immigrants TFR aligns with countries in 1 to 2 generations and that Worlwide TFR is falling steadily.

Are we supposed to believe that Austrian muslim population will grow faster then Bangladesh, Indonesia, Egypt !
Their populations will grow about 50% to 2050 because of projected declines in TFR. But Austrian muslims are supposed to multiply by upto 7!
Its a little hard to believe without an extremely high TFR.

If worldwide TFR does not continue to reduce significantly over that time we will have 30 Billion on the planet by 2050.
But of course if he mentions this it would drown out any "crisis thinking" about muslims.

Even in the US, there has been an appreciable growth in the "no religion" population over the past decade to 14 per cent

I think Richard Dawkins tends to disagree.

381. A third of Muslim students back killings

Comment #221260 by Nairb on July 29, 2008 at 1:14 pm

Socialism: "The beatings will continue until morale improves!"

I am afraid this approach isnt limited to socialism.
Talk to any sales rep on what he thinks of his sales manager.
You may get more flowery descriptions then you want to hear...

:-)

382. A third of Muslim students back killings

Comment #221244 by Nairb on July 29, 2008 at 1:04 pm

Comment #221234 by JAMCAM87

Relax Jamcam! Read it in public where you want!

Based on those numbers You are more likely to be run over by a Boeing 747!

:-)

383. A third of Muslim students back killings

Comment #221186 by Nairb on July 29, 2008 at 12:15 pm

443. Comment #220775 by hungarianelephant

Excellent post

Rightly or wrongly, there's a perception amongst Muslims that they are being victimised. This needs to be dispelled. We could start by enforcing all the existing laws properly, and not giving special passes on cultural or religious grounds.Stop calling murder "honour killing". Stop calling rape "forced marriage". Call them what they are and prosecute them fully.

Sixty percent don't want Shariah. These people, and their counterparts amongst Muslims generally, are an important constituency. The fact that they are shouted over by the "community leaders" should not deter us. We need to get these people onside and marginalise the troublemakers.

I agree completely

And we could go about this strategy calmly and rationally if people checked the numbers before proclaiming falsely again that we are about to be swamped by a muslim majority in europe.

It would help also if we avoid adding to the Victim feeling amongst muslims. I am not sure TV communication with images only of Muslims extremism (a la Fitna) help here - even if it is true of part of the population.We should also to support and praise the moderates in the same programs.

This is a communication strategy. It doesnt mean we go all wobbly before saying boo to muslims.

As Anatole France said "Education is nine tenths encouragement"

384. A third of Muslim students back killings

Comment #220692 by Nairb on July 28, 2008 at 10:35 pm

----You asked why did they terorise the south. As far as I know there was no IRA bombing in the Republic of Ireland.

Unbelievable.

From wiki the socialist objective was added in the 1970 version of the Green Book. Added probably to help gain support in Northern Ireland at that time.

Can you cite any terror campaigns in the Republic of Ireland after that?

I think you cant.

The IRA terrorising in the Republic is a bit like the Unionists paramilitaries terrorizing Britain.

385. A third of Muslim students back killings

Comment #220587 by Nairb on July 28, 2008 at 4:04 pm

Weesam

I dont have a hard and fast position on this but I dont feel you have shown that Socialism was the main goal instead of Ntaionalism.

You asked why did they terorise the south. As far as I know there was no IRA bombing in the Republic of Ireland. For sure there was far more in Northern Ireland and in Britain.

Surely most funding of the IRA came from US Irish immigrants rather then socialist countries like the soviet union.I find it hard to believe the US Irish were sending money because of the IRA's socialist aims.

386. A third of Muslim students back killings

Comment #220555 by Nairb on July 28, 2008 at 3:04 pm

I think a strong Nationalist and a strong Socialist sentiment are difficult to reconcile.

Seems to me that Socialism tends to have universal ideals and looks more to the future then Nationalism which elevates some tidied up version of the past.

I think most people would associate IRA with nationalism.

387. A third of Muslim students back killings

Comment #220523 by Nairb on July 28, 2008 at 2:31 pm

Weesam

Are you sure that the goal of the Irish Republican army was to create a socialist republic?

Dont you think it was more about Irish Nationalism?

388. A third of Muslim students back killings

Comment #220497 by Nairb on July 28, 2008 at 2:01 pm

In the original article it says
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2462911/Muslim-students-back-killing-in-the-name-of-Islam.html

When it came to wearing the hijab or headscarf, 59 per cent said it was important, with more women than men agreeing

Seems like there is more problems with State schools then Faith schools.

While most students showed a typical generation gap where their parents were more religious than they were - 72 per cent

72% of them were LESS religous then their parents !

How has Britain survived?

389. A third of Muslim students back killings

Comment #220377 by Nairb on July 28, 2008 at 11:33 am

Okay, I'll be dead so I shouldn't care, but I do. I agree with you .... but, what will happen when they are a majority? It really worries me. With birthrates of 4.7 versus 1.6 the demographics of the UK will be vastly different in 50 years time.

Estimates put British Muslims at around 2 to 3% of the population.
For the MENA region, Middle East(including Iran) and North Africa the pupulation quadrupled in the past 60 years. In the next 40 it is expected to grow by about 50%.

If British muslims follow the same path one would expect a grand total of 4 to 5% of the British Population being Muslim in 2050.

Hardly very different to today. NOT a majority!

390. A third of Muslim students back killings

Comment #220373 by Nairb on July 28, 2008 at 11:25 am

AdrianB

Okay, I'll be dead so I shouldn't care, but I do. I agree with you .... but, what will happen when they are a majority? It really worries me. With birthrates of 4.7 versus 1.6 the demographics of the UK will be vastly different in 50 years time.

Muslim families 4.7 kids per couple.
The rest of us 1.6 kids per couple.

I seriously doubt those figures as presented.

They may be true for a small subset of the muslim population or the data is outdated.
Can you provide the source? I expect British muslims birthrates have declined as they have worldwide for the past 50 years and in particular in Europe immigrant populations..
Countries such as Egypt, Iran, Banglkadesh, Indonesia do not have a TFR(kids per mother) as high as you mention.

Netherlands, 1990 and 2005
TFR Dutch-born women rose between from 1.6 to 1.7.
TFR Moroccan-born women fell from 4.9 to 2.9, and
TFR Turkish-born women in Holland fell from 3.2 to 1.9.

In Austria 1981 to 2001
TFR of Muslim women fell from 3.1 to 2.3 from .

Germany 1970 -1996
Turkish-born women had on average 2 children more than German-born women. 0.5.in 1996

391. Sydney brothels say Pope's visit will give business a leg-up

Comment #219285 by Nairb on July 26, 2008 at 3:23 pm

Vinelectric, SilentMike

I dont really understand your points. Are you saying religion plays no part in conflict between Israel and Lebannon?
Surely it is easy to see if we took out religion from the area the different groups would over time begin to work together.

I for one appreciate seeing those images though horrific because they serve to remind me of the sheer horror of war. Something I think we all need to be reminded of from time to time. I would imagine seeing the pictures in internet is significantly less disturbing then beiong in the warzone.

While I support the existance of Israel and its right to have peace, it does look like the recent war with Lebannon was an overreaction.

Do you have any facts on the number of people killed or injured by Hezbollah in Israel over the last 10 years compared to what happened during the recent war.

In other words was this war really proportional?

392. Islam subway ads cause stir in New York

Comment #219138 by Nairb on July 26, 2008 at 10:58 am

hawt4dawk

Good links on feminists and their international activities.

For info a link on French feminist movement launched by french muslim women
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ni_Putes_Ni_Soumises
http://www.niputesnisoumises.com/mouvement.php?section=historique_presentation_eng

For those that have the impression Muslim women do not stand up to muslim opression - do please take note.
The government made the founder a secretary of state to the Prime Minister in 2006.

393. Islam subway ads cause stir in New York

Comment #218405 by Nairb on July 25, 2008 at 11:52 am

Just before the euro was introduced, I saw a gentleman from Kerry doing a vox pop on his thoughts on the euro.

"Ah sure, it'll never catch on. Like VAT."

Poor guy, its hard making economic predictions.
VAT was invented in 1954 and is used almost universally now.

394. Islam subway ads cause stir in New York

Comment #218347 by Nairb on July 25, 2008 at 9:39 am

Adding euro is always bad

Eurotrash
Eurostar
Euroclear
Euro 2008
Euro MP (lazy do nothing in Brissels - except our ones of course)
Eurozone
Euro (the monopoly money that will never work)

395. Islam subway ads cause stir in New York

Comment #218318 by Nairb on July 25, 2008 at 8:24 am

Al
Al,

Its last comment indicates that in France there is a 13% that could be down to "pure descrimination".

Agreed this may be due to differences in social benefits (women get considerable maternal leave options). I'm glad they do - its boosting the fertility rates!

I dont think theres conclusive proof here either way.

On Saudia Arabia - how do they get to their work place - is it in their bedroom ? :-)

396. Islam subway ads cause stir in New York

Comment #218308 by Nairb on July 25, 2008 at 7:53 am

Now that the argument has finally got to facts I just thought I would add some facts from the other side of the water.
I would agree with Al some media feminists seem to have their priorities the wrong way round.
On domestic violence I am not surprised with your stats. I think women are usually more likely to escalate the violence (due to womens smaller physical size).However for the same reason I feel women are more likely to suffer long term abuse.

From www.diplomatie.gouv.fr ( French Government site)

With the highest rate of employment in the European Union - 47% of the population economically active in 1998, compared to 35% at the beginning of the 1960s, women in France are playing a significant part in economic life. Yet they continue to suffer persistent discrimination and inequalities: pay, responsibilities, unemployment, job insecurity...

Today, rare are the jobs prohibited to women in France. Nonetheless they mostly occupy jobs that enable them to combine work with family life.

It is also still unusual to see women reaching managerial positions and the highest levels of management. Only 6.3% of the management of the 5,000 leading companies in France are women2. In the public services, where 59.6% of all jobs are held by women, only 10% of them reach the top levels of the administration (there are only 5 women out of 109 prefects and 11 women ambassadors out of more than 150!)3.

But times are changing: women are setting up more and more companies (up from 18 to 30% in fifteen years), for which the survival rate is higher than those set up by men. Women under twenty-five now also represent half of all executives and higher professionals - especially in the media, medecine, law and higher education - compared to a quarter in the 1980s.

The other side of the coin is that French women earn a salary 25% lower than that of men (compared to 9% less in Denmark and 35% less in Great-Britain). Occupying hands-on rather than managerial posts, women also often have careers disrupted by childbirth or the husband's relocation for his job. With identical degree, experience and qualifications, there is still a 13% pay differential, "which may be interpreted", according to Béatrice Majnoni d'Intignano, "as the result of pure discrimination". For all that, the salary gap is nonetheless tending to diminish, especially among the young generations, who are better educated than their elder sisters.

http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/france_159/label-france_2554/label-france-issues_2555/label-france-no.-37_4205/feature-women-in-france-today_4298/women-at-work-an-inexorable-rise_6616.html

397. Islam subway ads cause stir in New York

Comment #217352 by Nairb on July 24, 2008 at 9:00 am

I can't verify those numbers at the moment, but if you could give me until I get back home. I'm not ducking this one, but if you can give me a moment, that would be good.

Fanusi
No rush, just tell me the source - the name of the politician who said that rubbish and maybe his party. I am sure it will be very telling.

These guys are manipulating people's fears for their own ends and dont give a 2 f*** about secularism.

But their window of opportunity isnt going to last long. Dealing directly and properly with integration and moving towards selective immigratioon is going into mainstream politics and is being ramped up all over Europe.

Even the socialist party in France applauded the recent ruling on refusing citizenship to a woman who didnt "get" the secular nature of the state.

Edit: That was the nice side of the party. The not so nice side would probably prefer to just ban all religions. :-)

398. Islam subway ads cause stir in New York

Comment #217278 by Nairb on July 24, 2008 at 6:05 am

Goldy

Islam might be growing, but it is getting more marginalised in Europe. Yes, they are growing in number but how many are actually "Muslim"?
Had a whole slew of references to illustrate my point. Sod it, all lost.

Id be interested to see them posted here.

There is lots of good reasons to take a muscular defense of atheism and secularism (islam, christianity, cults, new age shit...)

But I think some of the stories about muslims are over the top propaganda. This propaganda is going to slow down the integration/dereligion of muslims.

If we dont convince the mainstream majority of muslims on secular values ( which has been happening) because we alienate them with crazy or biased propaganda we really will have a problem.

399. Islam subway ads cause stir in New York

Comment #217247 by Nairb on July 24, 2008 at 5:14 am

Dutch parliment said that Holland would become Muslim majority in one or two decades

The only thing worse then that is a Dutch parliamentarian that cant do elementary math.

Population Holland = 16 Million
Muslim poulation in Holland = 1 million

If the original dutch population was stable and Muslims doubled every 20 years, it will take 100 years to get to parity.

Needless to say the muslim population isnt going to double every 20 years
Even Egypts population is not expected to grow more then 50% in that time (20 years) where fertility rates are far higher.

This kind of misinformation being thrown about just leaves me shaking my head. They must know its bullshit.
I gues scaring people wins stupid people's votes.

400. Losing Sight of Progress

Comment #215938 by Nairb on July 22, 2008 at 2:16 pm

Comment #215887 by Buckle.of.the.Belt

Glad its better. I am going to ask if they had a disclaimer or othr comments by the teacher.

Quine
Good rule and I dont have to wait too long. In the meantime i think I will send them Tysons Origins. Its less dated then Sagans Cosmos ( my reason for becoming an atheist)
I was an atyheist at 13 so it bugs the hell out of me to see them not getting the real picture.